Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure 24/01/2017 Maarten Cuijpers

Fast development of EV technology over the last decade Tesla Roadster Chevrolet Bolt / Opel Ampera-E 2008 - $109,000 – 320 km 2018 - $37.495 - 383 km 2035 ? Introduce yourself and Ecofys Skiing anecdote Realization  we have seen fast development of EV in the last decade What about the far future? 29/11/2018 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

So.. what can we expect in the long term? What are future scenarios for the uptake of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure until 2035 in the Netherlands? Study purpose Partners Client and use Runtime (October to December last year) Two workshops with stakeholders to provide input. In this presentation we can only show you the basics of our study. But the full study is available trough the Ecofys website. 29/11/2018 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

Key drivers Energy transition, carsharing and autonomous driving Limited sharing economy and autonomous driving Strong sharing economy and autonomous driving Fast energy transition Slow energy transition Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Started off by defining key drivers Horizontal axis: pace of the energy transition Fast energy transition means Quickly declining battery prices Lower electricity prices Higher fossil fuel prices as a result of taxes Slower removal of tax benefits for electric vehicles Strong sharing economy and autonomous driving means High usage of sharing vehicles, reducing the total stock of vehicles Fully autonomous cars become available from 2025 onwards 29/11/2018 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

Three step model 1. TCO 2. Uptake 3. Charging infrastructure User groups (Private, commute, business, vans) Drive chain (Conventional, PHEV, BEV) Developments e.g. battery costs, range, policy and energy prices Stock model TCO Consumer willingness Trips per user group Preferred charging method Home charging, work charging Public charging Fast charging Result Forecast TCO development of EV/PHEV vs. Fossiel Forecast of the number and type of electric vehicles Forecast of the number and type of chargers needed These scenarios were modelled in a three step approach. TCO - user groups - drive chains Developments Uptake Stock model Charging infrastructure OVIN database Preferred charging method Result: - Projection of the uptake of EV and the required infrastructure until 2035 29/11/2018 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

Results scenario 1 and 4 Electric cars and required charging infrastructure In scenario 1 we see the uptake of electric vehicles primarily taking place from 2020 onwards Total of around 3 million electric vehicles by 2035 Limited uptake of carsharing and autonomous driving Around 2.5 million charging points needed by 2035 In scenario 4 we see Fast uptake of electric vehicles, already from 2017 onwards Total of 4 million electric vehicles by 2035 Around 1.5 million vehicles less needed as a result from high use of (autonomous) carsharing vehicles Very high short term growth in the amount of chargers needed to accommodate steep increase in Evs, primarily in the public and work chargers segment. 29/11/2018 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

Key conclusions TCO for electric vehicles is fast becoming favourable over fossil fuelled vehicles 2017  Business drivers 2018-2020  Commute drivers 2020–2027  Private drivers 2019-2023  Light commercial vehicles (vans) Significantly more charging infrastructure is needed to facilitate EVs, already in the short term Work chargers  +300% in 2020 (≈ 51.000) Public chargers  +170% in 2020 (≈ 45.000) Home chargers  +30% in 2020 (≈ 78.000) Corridor chargers (fast chargers) are key for long distances, but no alternative to slow (parking) chargers in the short term. Carsharing and autonomous driving can revolutionise (electric) mobility Carsharing can reduce the size of the vehicle fleet by 50% in 2050 (Fully) autonomous vehicles potentially gaining market share from 2025 onwards, strongly stimulating carsharing initiatives Carsharing and autonomous driving can reduce the required charging infrastructure by 25% in 2035 Go over the key conclusions 29/11/2018 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

Recommendations Stimulate the development of charging infrastructure, primarily focussing on public charging infrastructure and work charging infrastructure Stimulate the development of car sharing and autonomous driving through innovation and the removal of legislative barriers Develop a system in which smart charging services can be delivered as a facilitator for the energy transition Further research needed to better understand the charging preferences of future EV drivers Go over recommendations Although the future is unsure we can conclude that we are on the verge of a EV revolution that will change the way in which we fulfil our mobility needs. New developments, such as carsharing and autonomous driving are on the horizon and could add an additional layer to the or transport system When I see so many smart people working on electric vehicles and new mobility concepts I am confident that we will realize these changes Finalize with skiing anecdote – Autonomous Carsharing vehicle in 10 - 15 year Thank you. Questions. 29/11/2018 Exploration of future electric mobility and charging infrastructure

Questions, please contact: Maarten Cuijpers m. cuijpers@ecofys Questions, please contact: Maarten Cuijpers m.cuijpers@ecofys.com For the full report, please visit: www.ecofys.com 29/11/2018 Name

Backup – charging infrastructure model 29/11/2018 Name