THORPEX-Europe Meeting Summary Dale Barker © Crown Copyright 2011 Source: Met Office

Karlsruhe, 24-27th May 2011 http://www.pandowae.de/en/newsevents/thorpex-erm

Aims Of Workshop The aim of this meeting is to review progress in European THORPEX research, to strengthen existing collaborations and initiate new collaborations within the European THORPEX community, to identify necessary revisions to the THORPEX European Plan http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/European_Plan_5_July_web.pdf and to discuss European involvement within new THORPEX initiatives. Themes are PDP (Predictability and Dynamical Processes) DAOS (Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies) TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) Field Programs (IPY-THORPEX, T-PARC, T-NAWDEX, HYMEX, …) SERA (Societal Economic Research Applications).

PDP (Sarah Jones)

PANDOWAE (2008-2014) (Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather systems in the Atlantic-European sector) http://www.pandowae.de/

Observation Sensitivity Intercomparison DAOS (Roger Saunders) Observation Sensitivity Intercomparison

FSO Example Study: EasyJet AMDARs September – December 2010 Global Model T+24 Forecast Impact Study AMDAR impact #3 after TEMP/Aircraft. Significant regional variation in impact. Richard Marriott

TIGGE (Richard Swinbank)

COSMO-LEPS/SREPS (Tiziana Pacagnella) 7km resolution No DA. Plans for convective-scale nests (link to MWFR?

COSMO-LEPS/SREPS (Tiziana Pacagnella) 7km resolution No DA. Plans for convective-scale nests (link to MWFR?

COSMO-DE (Detlev Majewski)

Operational NWP Configs: Spring 2013 (Tentative) Global 16-20km 85L (85km top) Hybrid 4DVAR (50km inner-loop) 60 hour forecast twice/day 144 hour forecast twice/day 48/12member 40km MOGREPS-G 4*/day MOGREPS-EU Common NWP/reanalysis domain. 12Km 70L (40km top) 3D-Var (or NoDA) 48 hour forecast 12 members ; 4 times per day UKV 1.5km 70L (40km top) 3DVAR (hourly) 36 hour forecast, 4 times per day 12 member 2.2km MOGREPS-UK Our current suite of operational NWP models are shown here along with future configurations. The numbers refer to typical horizontal grid spacings in mid- latitudes. This grid spacing is often referred to as resolution. 12

THORPEX Priorities

THORPEX-DAOS Meeting (Exeter): Report: 2.6: Links to MWFR ‘The MWFR addresses the “grey zone” and DA<1 day. Their next meeting is 10-11th Sept in Berlin. The focus is on the regional 0.5 to 5km scale - convective and mesoscale which complements THORPEX on the global 1-14 day time scale. They were promoting research through RDPs e.g. COPs, D-PHASE etc., and were in close liaison with TIGGE – LAM. Joint workshops with the Verification WG and Nowcasting Groups proved valuable to agree strategy. They were working to achieve worldwide standards for mesoscale verification and model quality assessment.Potential interactions with DAOS could be in areas such as shared DA expertise, guidance on high resolution (HR) DA, provision of optimal LCBs for MWFR RDPs/FDPs, and the treatment of the large scale in HR DA and observation selection for DA. It was agreed to consider organising a joint session with the MWFR through a “back to back” meeting in 2012 at which a report on DAOS DA activities would be presented and general DA issues of common interest discussed. Action 4: Consider organising DAOS 5 “back to back” with the next MWFR meeting (Co-Chairs). Action 5: The Report of the DAOS 4 meeting should be circulated to MWFR members (Dale Barker).’ http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/DAOS4meetingReportV4_1_.pdf

THORPEX-MWFR Links THORPEX focus on 1-14day/global NWP, whereas MWFR focus on 0.5-3km, convective-scale. Partition generally agreed. Future joint meeting? PDP: Field-programmes e.g. HyMEX, DIAMET, etc. PANDOWAE link? DAOS: i) Application of advanced DA pioneered in global to conv-scale, ii) High-resolution observation sensitivity studies (replacing targetting). Note next WMO Obs Impact workshop, Sedona, Arizona, May 2012. Hope for more regional studies – can MWFR promote these in time? TIGGE: ?. TIGGE-LAM? Convective-scale EPS, EUROPREDICT? Value of Regional/Convective-Scale NWP/DA vs Global (THORPEX/WGNE/JWGVR/MWFR?).

Workshop on Use of NWP for Nowcasting   October 24-26, 2011 Room 1212, CG1, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Details Organizing committee: WWRP/MWFR: Dale Barker, Jeanette Onvlee WWRP/NWC: Jenny Sun, Paul Joe, Peter Li WMO: Slobodan Nickovic, Nanette Lombarda Purpose:…to explore ways to advance the use of NWP for nowcasting applications. Practitioners, users and developers of high resolution models, data assimilation and nowcasting systems are invited to articulate and define the requirements for NWP in nowcasting applications, and strategically explore and develop a roadmap to bridge the existing gaps between the nowcasting and mesoscale NWP communities.

Details Outcome: the WGMWFR and WGNR will formulate a set of recommendations to the JSC of WMO/WWRP on how to progress this activity further. These could include e.g. the development of a project plan for an RDP (Research Demonstration Project) or FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) in this field, and search for funding and partnerships for supporting the project. Format: 5 sessions, 2-3 30minute keynote speakers + 4-6 submitted 20minute talks per session. Abstracts due: September 9th.

Programme Session 1: Current state of art of nowcasting Session 2: Suitability of convective-scale NWP models for nowcasting Session 3: Indirect use of NWP in blended model/observation-based nowcasting systems Session 4: High-resolution data assimilation to improve very-short-term forecast Session 5: Verification of nowcasting techniques/systems

Invitees