Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study Isaac I.

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Presentation transcript:

Potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission in resource-limited countries in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region: a modelling study Isaac I Bogoch, MD, Oliver J Brady, DPhil, Moritz U G Kraemer, BSc, Matthew German, MSc, Maria I Creatore, PhD, Shannon Brent, MPH, Alexander G Watts, PhD, Prof Simon I Hay, DSc, Manisha A Kulkarni, PhD, Prof John S Brownstein, PhD, Dr Kamran Khan, MD The Lancet Infectious Diseases Volume 16, Issue 11, Pages 1237-1245 (November 2016) DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30270-5 Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Seasonal geographical suitability for Zika virus transmission in Africa and seasonal volume of airline travellers arriving from the Americas Monthly maps are shown for Africa. Travellers arriving from the Americas refers to travellers originating from regions of Latin America and the Caribbean that are suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016 16, 1237-1245DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30270-5) Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Seasonal geographical suitability for Zika virus transmission in Asia-Pacific and seasonal volume of airline travellers arriving from the Americas Monthly maps are shown for Asia-Pacific region. Travellers arriving from the Americas refers to travellers originating from regions of Latin America and the Caribbean that are suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016 16, 1237-1245DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30270-5) Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Volume of airline travellers arriving from the Americas by peak resident population at risk of Zika virus exposure and health expenditures per capita The x-axis shows log of the annual volume of travellers arriving from airports within the ecological niche of Zika virus in the Americas, y-axis shows the transformation of health expenditures per capita (square root of 1/health expenditures per capita), and the size of circles shows the populations residing within the geographical range of Zika virus during the month of its broadest activity. Travellers arriving from the Americas refers to travellers originating from regions of Latin America and the Caribbean that are suitable for year-round transmission of Zika virus. Due to highly skewed distribution of values, volume of airline travellers was plotted on a logarithmic scale. Population at risk of Zika virus exposure refers to resident populations living in areas suitable for Zika virus transmission during the month when the geographical range of suitability is broadest. Health expenditures are measured in 2014 US$; because of highly skewed distribution of values, we transformed health expenditures per capita for visualisation purposes. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016 16, 1237-1245DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30270-5) Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions