BRAC University, Bangladesh A Case Study of Displacement and Human Mobility in Bangladesh after Cyclone Aila Ainun Nishat Professor Emeritus BRAC University, Bangladesh Presented by C3ER team

Outline 1. Introductory comments 2. Definition and concepts 3. The study area and Methodology 4. Evidences of displacement and out migration 5. Concluding Remarks 11/29/2018

1. Introductory Comments 11/29/2018

Bangladesh to face Climate Climate Change induced hazards Recognized globally as one of the most vulnerable to adverse impacts of Climate Change Experiencing the increased frequencies and intensities of natural disasters. Erratic rainfall; changes in seasons Short duration heavy rainfall causing land slides and drainage congestion in urban areas Flood with higher intensity Cyclones and Tidal surges, and Tornadoes Salinity intrusion Drought-like phenomenon River bank erosion

Parameters: drought, flood and cyclone

Bangladesh CC Strategy and Action Plan 2009… Six pillars (Themes) Food security, social protection & health security Comprehensive disaster management Infrastructure development Research and knowledge management Mitigation and low carbon development Capacity building – institutional and human

2. Definition and concepts 11/29/2018

The concept: Terminologies Migration vs. mobility vs. displacement Migration (human) is the movement of people from one place in the world to another for the purpose of taking up permanent or semi permanent residence, usually across a political boundary. Mobilityis the movement of people, as from one social group, class, or level to another. Displacement is the movement of a person or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized State border. Ref: IMO.2010. Assessing the Evidence: Environment, Climate Change and Migration in Bangladesh. International Migration Organization, Bangladesh. IMO. 2011. Glossary of Migration. International Migration Organization,Switzerland. 11/29/2018

The concept: Terminologies Refugee vs. environmental refugee vs. environmental migrants A refugee is someone who has been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war, or violence. A refugee has a well-founded fear of persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group. Most likely, they cannot return home or are afraid to do so. War and ethnic, tribal and religious violence are leading causes of refugees fleeing their countries. Environmental refugee are those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardi(s)ed their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life. Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move within their country or abroad. Ref: IMO. 2011. Glossary of Migration. International Migration Organization, Switzerland. 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

The working definition Migration: Migration is defined in this survey as the movement of persons who change their place of residence, except for marriage, for a period of six months or more. The time period for the migration due to marriage is not fixed. Ref (BBS. 2012. Population and housing census 2011: Socio-economic and demographic report) Temporary migrant: as the movement for less than six month Permanent migrant: as the movement for six month or more ( strictly, this may not be termed as permanent migration). Migration and displacement has been used inter-changeably 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

3. The study area and Methodology 11/29/2018

Why Shyamnagar in Satkhira Satkhira was worst hit by cyclone Aila in 2009 Climate change coupled with overall environmental degradation are the major challenges, Slow onset event (salinity) is creeping in. Rapid onset events (storm surge) are also of major concern Primarily impacted sectors is water and agriculture; livelihood is the most vulnerable Human migration is not a new phenomenon, rather it’s historical, 11/29/2018

ShyamnagarUpazila Largest upazila of Satkhira district Located at 22.3306°N 89.1028°E Area: 1968.24 sq.km including 1622.65 sq.km of forest according to BBS 2001 Bordered by Kaliganj (Satkhira) and Assasuniupazilas on the north, Sundarbans and Bay of Bengal on the south, Koyraand Assasuniupazilas on the east, West Bengal of India on the west. Rivers: Raymangal, Kalindi, kobadak, Mother Kholpetua, Arpangachia, MalanchaHariabhanga and Chuna. Unions: Shyamnagar, Atulia, Bhurulia, Burigoalini, Gabura, Ishwaripur, Koikhali, Kashimari, Munshiganj, Nurnagar, Padmopukur, and Ramjannagar 11/29/2018

ShyamagarUpazila 11/29/2018

ShyamnagarUpazila Household: 722,79 Population : 318,254 (male-153,441 and female-164,813) Population density: 1088 sq/km Physiographic unit: Ganges tidal floodplain Bio-ecological zone: Saline tidal floodplain Annual rainfall:around 1780-2030 mm Annual max temperature: 37oc Annual min temperature: 11oc 11/29/2018

Climatic Hazards in Satkhira Rapid Onset Events Climatic extremes Non-rainy days Short duration heavy rainfall No of hot summer days, etc. Storm and cyclonic surge Hail storm Flood River bank erosion Slow onset events Climatic norms Increase in Temperature, Rainfall and other weather parameters Salinity increase Drought 11/29/2018

The method: Approach Stratified Random Sampling Complete household census of two unions Gabura: 7,565 Munshiganj: 7,645 Total: 15,210 Drawing the statistically significant sample At 5% error margin and 90-95% confidence interval Migrant: 359, non-migrant: 272 Stratified Random Sampling Migrant vs Non Migrant HH Spatial distribution (9 wards under Gabura and Munshiganj) Occupation Religion and ethnic community More than 30 FGD sessions covering all occupation class More than 15 Key Informant Interviews 11/29/2018

The method 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

4. Evidences of displacement and out-migration 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

We asked……..! We had asked every house-hold to find out Who is migrating/ moving out; Where they are migrating/moving out; Why they are migrating/moving out; 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Who is migrating? One of every ten people from the locality has already been migrated after cyclone Aila Extent of temporary and permanent migration from Gabura union is higher 11/29/2018

Who is migrating? Mostly, the day labors are migrating 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Who is migrating? Type of Migration>> Temporary Permanent Total Religion Union Count % Muslim   Gabura 3157 9.32% 501 1.48% 3658 10.80% Munshiganj 1346 5.95% 156 0.69% 1502 6.65% 4503 7.97% 657 1.16% 5160 9.13% Hindu 134 8.11% 122 7.38% 256 15.49% 1007 8.06% 425 3.40% 1432 11.46% 1141 547 3.87% 1688 11.93% Munda 11 4.62% 26 10.92% 37 15.55% 15 9.87% 0.00% 6.67% 52 13.33% 11/29/2018

Flow of temporary migration from Gabura and Munshiganj union Destination # of migrants Cross Boundary 508 Satkhira 216 Khulna 177 Jessore 95 Dhaka 56 Gopalganj 30 Chittagong 27 Rangamati 21 Bagerhat 13 Comilla Munshiganj Kushtia 8 Sunamganj 6 Panchagar 5 Bhola 4 Manikganj 3 Out Migration Faridpur 2 Feni 1 Tangail 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Flow of permanent migration from Gabura and Munshiganj union Destination # of migrants Dhaka 1197 Khulna 1156 Satkhira 831 Cross Boundary 817 Jessore 463 Gopalganj 96 Chittagong 87 Comilla 70 Norail 59 Manikganj 43 Barisal 41 Rangamati 34 Out Migration Noakhali 32 Mymensingh 27 Sylhet 26 Kishorganj 24 Munshiganj 22 Patuakhali Kushtia 19 Tangail Rangpur 15 Madaripur 13 Destination # of migrants Madaripur 13 Dinajpur 11 Shariatpur Cox's bazar 9 Narail Rajshahi 8 Bagerhat 7 Faridpur Bogra 5 Lakshmipur Feni Narayanganj 4 Shirajganj Bhola 2 Pirojpur Barisal 1 Brahmonbaria Gazipur Khagracharri Magura Nator Netrokona Pabna 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Tracking the migrants… Distribution pattern of temporary migration Distribution pattern of permanent migration 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Why peoples are migrating? 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Why peoples are migrating? Mean daily income of the non-migrant household is less that BDT 62 than that of the migrant households. Similarly mean annual income varies within the range of USD 479 to USD 678 between non-migrant and migrant households. Only 13.4% of the migrants have reported income that crosses the average annual income of Bangladeshi nationals (USD 923, according to BBS’s statistics of May’2013); in comparison, 7.7% of the total reported non-migrants). 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Governance gap in support provision A very few percentage (7%) of the migrant and non-migrant families have reported to receive support from the government, both for supporting their current or alternative occupation. Around 35% of the migrant families have reported to receive support from the NGOs Majority support provision (more than 55%) comes from other sources, which includes support from neighbors and communities. 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Governance gap in support provision Those who claimed to receive some kind of support from any sources, majority received support in terms of short duration work. It is one of the critical findings of the current study that short duration work programs implemented by the Government as social safety net programs did support peoples not to migrate. It is evident that the proportion of those who received capital is notably higher (more than 20%) in the case of non-migrants. It may imply the importance of providing capital support instead of providing short duration work during post disaster period for supporting livelihood options. 11/29/2018

Why peoples are migrating? More than two-third (76.2%) of the cases that the available water supply facility was inadequate 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Why peoples are migrating? 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

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5. Concluding Remarks 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

Summing up… Climate change induced migration is evident! Involuntary migration is not an adaptation option, rather it’s the last resort! Rate of migration has increased tremendously after Aila 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

The global urgency Decision 1/Cop 16 in Cancun, Mexico (2010). Paragraph 14(f) calls upon states to enhance their action on adaptation by pursuing a range of measures, including ‘to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation, where appropriate, at the national, regional and international levels’ “planned relocation” recognize that policy needs to address might not be migration or displacement, but those who are unable or unwilling to move without assistance. Decision 3/ COP 18 in Doha (2012) Paragraph 7(a)-vi calls for the enhanced understanding on “How impacts of climate change are affecting patterns of migration, displacement and human mobility” “enhanced understanding” recognize the need for understanding the climate change induced migration phenomenon, it’s root causes and range of approaches to address the issue 11/29/2018 C3ER ANSA

4. Support management of Climate change induced migration process Decision 14(f) taken in Cop 16, in Cancun (2010) recognized that issues related to climate change induced displaced people and migrants need to be addressed. Paris(2015) may work out a well defined mechanism to address issues emerging on this subject.

Thank you 11/29/2018