Clinical prediction rule to determine the need for repeat ERCP after endoscopic treatment of postsurgical bile leaks Apostolos V. Tsolakis, MD, PhD,

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Presentation transcript:

Clinical prediction rule to determine the need for repeat ERCP after endoscopic treatment of postsurgical bile leaks Apostolos V. Tsolakis, MD, PhD, Paul D. James, MD, MSc, Gilaad G. Kaplan, MD, MPH, Robert P. Myers, MD, MSc, James Hubbard, MSc, Todd Wilson, MSc, Scott Zimmer, BSc, Rachid Mohamed, MD, Martin Cole, MD, Sydney Bass, MD, Mark G. Swain, MD, MSc, Steven J. Heitman, MD, MSc Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Volume 85, Issue 5, Pages 1047-1056.e1 (May 2017) DOI: 10.1016/j.gie.2016.10.027 Copyright © 2017 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Schematic of subjects included in the study. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy 2017 85, 1047-1056.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.gie.2016.10.027) Copyright © 2017 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Proportion of patients with persistent leak and other pathology on repeat ERCP. A, All leak types. B, Restricted to leak score C cases. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy 2017 85, 1047-1056.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.gie.2016.10.027) Copyright © 2017 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Recursive partitioning of 217 patients for the presence of persisting bile leak and other pathology on repeat ERCP (Pathology) or the absence of both (No pathology). Rule sensitivity, 94% (95% CI, 83%-99%); specificity, 24% (95% CI, 18%-31%); positive predictive value, 26% (95% CI, 20%-34%); and negative predictive value, 93% (95% CI, 81%-99%). ALP, alkaline phosphatase. Gastrointestinal Endoscopy 2017 85, 1047-1056.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.gie.2016.10.027) Copyright © 2017 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Terms and Conditions