Getting in Touch (prep for Tuesday’s Class)

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Presentation transcript:

Getting in Touch (prep for Tuesday’s Class) Meteo 415 – Fall 2009

The Tuesday Issue The challenge of hitting the ground at a full speed is primarily one of discipline – Experienced forecasters develop a ‘routine’ that quickly gets them in touch with the current weather pattern While the methods vary, there are some common elements -

Spinning up Snellman Funnel

Spinning up Either Satellite Loop or Upper Air Pattern http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/HEMI500/5dayloop.html

Spinning up Review Temperature and Precipitation for last 3 days http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MAXMIN_NA/naloop8.html

Spinning up Review Regional Surface Weather Map and estimate what the accompanying satellite picture should look like: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SFCNE/last.html

Spinning up Consider what features are unexpected and ponder what this may mean for the short range forecasts… http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_NE/recentir.html

Spinning Up After a regional review – zoom back out and mentally make a forecast of where the disturbances should move to…

Spinning Up Review the special weather statements, storm reports and records from the NWS offices Review NWS special weather statements and records for past few days… RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 900 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009 ...MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR AUGUST 4TH... AT THE INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY WAS 3.81 INCHES...WHICH IS A RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD 1.52 INCHES SET IN 1903. THIS RAINFALL TOTAL IS ALSO THE SECOND LARGEST FOR ANY DAY IN AUGUST AT INDIANAPOLIS. THE RECORD FOR THE MOST RAIN TO FALL ON ANY AUGUST DAY AT INDIANAPOLIS IS 4.46 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED ON AUGUST 6 1976. AT INDIANAPOLIS RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871.

Tackling the Tues Fcst Challenge Before reviewing the new guidance- Follow the flow pattern Recall where important features are located Look for surprises on the satellite imagery Assess the amplitude of the pattern Estimate where disturbances should go Review previous guidance – for dM/dT Then look at the myriad of forecasts