Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

Climate Change in the Heartland Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Program Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Heartland Regional Roundtable Nutrient Management for Water Protection in Highly Productive Systems of the Heartland  Lied Center, Nebraska City June 8-10, 2010

Outline Observed global changes in carbon dioxide and temperature Projected future changes in global and US temperatures and precipitation Future climate change for Iowa and the US Midwest

Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Global Carbon Emissions (Gt) Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

Forcing Factors in the Global Climate Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating Increasing greenhouse gases increases heating of the Earth Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating

Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Global Mean Surface Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

Global Mean Surface Temperature I II III IV http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

More environmentally friendly Energy intensive Balanced fuel sources More environmentally friendly If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007 FI =fossil intensive IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007

Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007

Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations. Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Necessary Adaptation Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Farmers install more drainage tile Necessary Adaptation Farmers install more drainage tile Necessary Adaptation Possible Mitigation Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Necessary Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Possible Mitigation Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Farmers plant earlier, choose longer season hybrids The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Necessary Adaptation Farmers plant earlier, choose longer season hybrids Necessary Adaptation Possible Mitigation Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Arctic Sea-Ice Decline

Decline in Greenland Ice Mass Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year

Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Insured Losses from Weather-Related Catastrophes 1980-2005 Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Temperature rises in regions having thunderstorms likely to experience increased occurrence of lightning Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Karl, T. R. , J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Findings of the US National Assessment Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase Climate change will stress water resources Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge Risks to human health will increase Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today

Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000 Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 2009: 0

6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years 2009: 0

State-Wide Average Data

State-Wide Average Data 37.5” 31.5” 19% increase

State-Wide Average Data Totals above 40”

State-Wide Average Data Totals above 40” 8 years 2 years

Cedar Rapids Data

Cedar Rapids Data 28.0” 32% increase 37.0”

Cedar Rapids Data 51% increase 11.8” 7.8”

Cedar Rapids Data 34% increase 20.2” 26.8”

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

Cedar Rapids Data 57% increase 6.6 days 4.2 days

Years having more than 8 days Cedar Rapids Data Years having more than 8 days 11 2 57% increase 6.6 days 4.2 days

SWAT (RegCM2): 21 % increase in precip -> 50% increase in streamflow Relationship of Streamflow to Precipitation in Current and Future Climates DrainMod (RegCM2): 24 % increase in precip -> 35% increase in tile drainage DrainMod (HIRHAM): 32 % increase in precip -> 80% increase in tile drainage

13% increase es = 17.65 mb es = 19.99 mb D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

State-Wide Average Data

Des Moines Airport Data 2010 2009

Des Moines Airport Data Average 1976-2005: 3.2 days/yr 2010 2009

Des Moines Airport Data Caution: Not adjusted for possible urban influence Average 1976-2005: 3.2 days/yr 2010 2009

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More freeze-thaw cycles (high) Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium) Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high) More water-logging of soils (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) Higher episodic streamflow (medium) Longer periods without rain (medium) Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) More winter soil moisture recharge (medium) Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other Reduced wind speeds (high) Reduced solar radiation (medium) Increased tropospheric ozone (high) Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high) Phenological stages are shortened (high) Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high) Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high) Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

Iowa Agricultural Producers’ Adaptations to Climate Change Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season hybrids, harvest later Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller weather windows More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher yields Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is being installed, closer spacing, sloped surfaces Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer pollination failures Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist conditions. more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the daytime. Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-down conditions Is it genetics or climate? Likely some of each. HIGHER YIELDS!!

Successful Farming Jan 2010 Dan Looker

For More Information Or just Google Eugene Takle Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State University under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/ North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ For current activities on the ISU campus, regionally and nationally relating to climate change see the Climate Science Initiative website: http://climate.agron.iastate.edu/ Or just Google Eugene Takle