Structure of Public Opinion in Venezuela Since the Urban Riots of February 1989

Measurement of Public Opinion in Venezuela Sample size Regional measurement Class Other technical problems

Eve of the Second Inauguration of C.A. Perez (January 1989) Concern with rising level of abstention Support for the established political parties AD COPEI MAS Support for the Punto Fijo system

Eve of the Second Inauguration of C.A. Perez (January 1989) Issues that mattered most to Venezuelans Unemployment Inflation Education Personal security

Public Opinion in the aftermath of the February 4, 1992 coup attempt Attitudes toward coups Attitude toward traditional parties Attitude toward the policies of the CAP government Attitude toward democracy Democracy yes A different democracy

Public Opinion and the 1993 presidential elections View of AD View of COPEI Andres Valesquez and Causa R History of Causa R Anti-system alternative viewed with suspicion by 4 in 5 respondents Why Caldera won? Still loyalty to democratic system Anti-system alternative raised levels of insecurity Personal status and prestige

Public Opinion and the Triumph of Hugo Chavez AD suffers from Luis Alfaro’s support of Caldera’s neo-liberal agenda COPEI 1993 candidate View of COPEI Luis Herrera image never recovered Rise & Fall of Irene Saez. Why Hugo Chavez won? Lack of viable alternatives Desire to punish AD & COPEI Promises to end corruptions Personal charisma

Mega-elections of July 30. 2000 Same attitudes that determined outcomes in December 1998 permeate electorate in 2000 AD retains allegiance in the interior, especially the “East”. COPEI ceases to command the loyalty of a significant sector of the electorate.

Public Opinion and the Paro of December 2002/February 2003 Difficulties in measurement of public opinion Support for Chavez stand at 27% at the beginning of strike Support for Chavez passes 35% after two months of marches and shutdowns No leader of the opposition attracts widespread support

Referendum: August 15, 2004 Opposition forces gains sufficient signatures to force a recall under constitution of 1999 Favorable opinion of President Chávez increases as economy improves Revocatory referendum fails by a margin of 6 – 4.

Current Attitude Toward President Chávez Favorable attitude toward the president fell from the high 60% to high 40% between December 2006 & December 2007 No opposition leader’s rate of approval ascends into double digits Many Venezuelans are in the “ni” – “ni” camp in terms of their political preferences