IPET-OPSLS: Activities and Achievements (after April 2016 Beijing Meeting) Arun Kumar Chair, CBS/CCL IPET-OPSLS Climate Prediction Center, USA arun.kumar@noaa.gov

Rotation of IPET-OPSLS Chair in November 2016 (from Richard Graham to Arun Kumar); Many thanks to Richard for all his efforts (over eight years as the Chair) in advancing WMO LRF infrastructure. DWD, Offenbach became the 13th GPC-LRF and started providing the data to LC-LRFMME. Approval of designation criteria for Global Producing Centers for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (GPC-ADCP), and its inclusion in the GDPFS Manual. Approval of designation criteria for Lead Center for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (LC-ADCP), and its inclusion in the GDPFS Manual. - One of the few places where there is an international cooperation

Approval of UKMO as the LC-ADCP. Participated in the completion of the new version of the GDPFS Manual. Held 1st WMO workshop on Operational Climate Prediction (OCP-1), November 2015, Pune, India. Held 2nd WMO workshop on Operational Climate Prediction (OCP-2), May 2018, Barcelona, Spain. Concurred to remove password access to graphical products at the LC-LRFMME website.

Developed a research requirements document from operations perspective. Developed the draft outline of the guidance for seasonal forecast practices. Participated in the CBS Technical Conference (CBS-TECO) in March 2018; presented proposals for designation of news class of RSMCs. Participated in the CCl Technical Conference (CCl-TECO) in April 2018. Participating in the organization of the Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction conferences in September 2018, Boulder, USA. Supported regional activities including participation in RCOFs and workshops for advancing seasonal prediction practices.

Participated in the RCOF review workshop. Made advances in centralizing the verification of seasonal forecasts Participated in the development of the Global Seasonal Climate (GSCU) update. Participated in the ICT-DPFS (February 2018) and in developing the OPAG-DPFS action items for the next intersessional period. Participated in the development of the implementation plan for the Seamless GDPFS

Updates to the GPC-LRF seasonal forecast systems submitted to LC-LRFMME GPC-ECMWF GPC-Seoul GPC-Offenbach

LC-LRFMME Opening up the graphical products Included seasonal forecasts from GPC-Offenbach Updated seasonal forecasts from other GPCs Provided graphics on NH polar projection (to support ArcRCC) Took on responsibilities for verifications Development of the sub-seasonal pilot Providing continued support for GSCU

ICT-OPSLS Milestones & Status Actions Deliverable Status and Comments Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction Organize 2nd workshop on Operational Climate Prediction (OCP-2) Completed Guidelines on procedures for generating regional seasonal forecasts Develop a guidelines document A draft outline has been completed Implementation of sub-seasonal forecasts, including establishment of sub-seasonal GPCs and possibly of an associated lead center. Establish designation criteria for GPCs for sub-seasonal predictions Establishing a new class of RSMCs was proposed to the CBS MG during CBS-TECO in March 2018; A pilot phase of sub-seasonal forecasts has been established at LC-LRFMME Designation of LC-NTCP Establish designation criteria for GPCs and lead Centers for Near Term Climate Prediction (NTCP) Completed designation criteria for GPCs and lead center(s) for “Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (ADCP) are now part of GDPFS Manual

ICT-OPSLS Milestones & Status Actions Deliverable Status and Comments Develop revised strategies for verification exchange, including for LC-LRFMME multi-model products, real-time verification and support to GSCU A verification system for LC-LRFMME products (including hindcasts and real-time forecasts) LC-LRFMME took on the responsibility for verifications; The future status of SVSLRF will be further discussed in June 2018 in Barcelona, Spain To support emerging requirements of Polar RCCs, revisit the mandatory and highly recommended data requirements for GPCs able to provide forecast information relevant to Polar regions, and revise GPDFS as necessary A revised set of mandatory and highly recommended requirements for GPCs for Long-Range Predictions (a) LC-LRFMME is now providing graphical products has been made to provide forecast display on polar projection. (b) mandatory and highly recommended data requirements for GPCs will be discussed in the IPET-OPSLS face-to-face meeting in June 2018, Barcelona, Spain

ICT-OPSLS Milestones & Status Actions Deliverable Status and Comments Designation of LC-NTCP Establish designation criteria for GPCs and lead Centers for Near Term Climate Prediction (NTCP) Complete. Designation criteria for GPCs and lead center(s) for “Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction (ADCP) are now part of GDPFS Manual Develop mechanisms for WGSIP and S2S project communities to provide feedback on LC-LRFMME products, and access GPC data to advance research efforts. (2018) A mechanism for obtaining feedback for LC-LRFMME products and their availability by research community (a) Research requirements from the operations were provided by IPET-OPSLS to WGSIP. (b) Open data access will be discussed in the IPET-OPSLS face-to-face meeting in June 2018, Barcelona, Spain Review applications for new GPC candidates for WMO designation and update LC-LRFMME products by incorporating newly designated GPCs in the multi-model forecast product. Complete review of new GPC applicants, and if designated, inclusion of their products in the LC-LRFMME As needed, applications are reviewd.

Decisions, recommendations and agreed actions from the IPET-OPSLS meeting in Beijing, 2016 Implementation of the new streamlined verification facility at LC-LRFMME and harmonisation with LC-SVSLRF Further development of the LC-LRFMME real-time sub-seasonal multi-model pilot Development of roles and responsibilities for a Lead Centre for Near Term Climate Prediction Seamless Data-processing and Forecasting System Potential requirements on GPCs from a Polar RCC (PRCC) Next WMO workshop on Operational Climate Prediction

Decisions, recommendations and agreed actions from the IPET-OPSLS meeting in Beijing, 2016 GPC products and outputs Recommendations for GSCU development Harmonisation of GSCU and LC-LRFMME website products Guidance document on procedures for generating consolidated regional seasonal forecasts ET-OPSLS / WGSIP collaboration on themes relevant to operational prediction Quality control of GPC products on the LC-LRFMME website Temporary access to LC-LRFMME products

Decisions, recommendations and agreed actions from the IPET-OPSLS meeting in Beijing, 2016 Review of the SVSLRF Questionnaire on subseasonal verification practices in operational centres Questionnaire on GPC approaches for distribution of hindcast and forecast data

A lot done; looking forward … Long-range forecast infrastructure, and coordination among operational centers is far behind the practices in weather prediction. Need to be more active between face-to-face meetings in advancing the action items of IPET-OPSLS and Sub-Teams.