Part F-I The Economic Theory of Crime and Punishment Some Data 4/5/05 Crime_E
Objectives - provide an overview of crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Longer term trend Note units of measurement Substantial upward trends Considerable shorter-term fluctuation (more so for property crime) Total 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada - some data 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada - some data Introduction - Police-reported crime in Canada Since 1962, (incidents that come to their attention, or detected through investigation) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Survey - violent crime, property crime, impaired driving offences, drug offences and youth crime - national, provincial/territorial and census metropolitan area levels. - incidents and accused persons are also presented where appropriate. 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada - some data Incidents that come to the attention of the police are recorded and forwarded to the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics (CCJS) according to a nationally-approved set of common crime categories and definitions. - many factors may influence police-reported crime statistics - reporting by the public to the police - reporting by police to the CCJS - the impact of new initiatives such as changes in legislation, policies or enforcement practices - social, economic and demographic changes. 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada - some data Reporting to police - Two main sources of information in Canada: police-reported crime data and victimization surveys - General Social Survey (GSS) - police-reported data measure crimes known to the police - victimization surveys collect information directly from the general population not necessarily investigated or substantiated by police. - Reasons why victims may not report criminal incidents to police. - the level of perceived seriousness of the incident - not wanting to involve the police - fear of reprisals from the aggressor - etc. - Conversely, people are encouraged to report crime to police because of, - the desire to see the offender punished - the social obligation to report criminal behaviour - the need to obtain a police report for insurance purposes 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada - some data Reporting to police Reporting to police will vary by type of crime, region, class, etc. - The failure to report crimes to the police will lead to an under-counting of crime - Reporting deficiencies lead to statistical under-estimates and this might affect the measure of crime rates - Greater (or lesser) awareness by the public, police and prosecutors of the true crime rates will affect resources flows public attitudes towards the crime 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada - Property crime is a teenage activity - Violent crime is a teenage and young person activity NOTE these numbers refer to people accused of crimes but not the seriousness of the crimes 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada Trend versus fluctuations 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada What factors might affect trends? What factors might cause fluctuations? 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada What factors might explain the substantial inter-provincial variance in crime rates? 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada What factors might explain such a trend? 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada A violent crime but also an ‘economic’ crime 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada Economic crime (violent one) 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada What factors might explain the substantial inter-provincial variance in crime rates? 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada What factors might affect trends? What factors might cause fluctuations? 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Breaking and Entering 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide Why has Canada’s homicide rate been declining? No single explanation can account for the decrease - improvements in medical technology and emergency response systems. Research in the United States - without recent developments in trauma care, the homicide rate would likely be three to five times higher. American researchers looked at data over the past 40 years and found that, while the U.S. murder rate has gradually decreased, the rate of aggravated assault has increased. Over the past 20 years in Canada, however, not only has the homicide rate declined, but the rates of aggravated assault (-23%) and attempted murder (-38%) have also declined. 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide Other research - gun control laws Additional research points to the - effects of an aging population 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 2003 Average Census Metropolitan Area 1993-2002 Population Number Rate Number Rate 500,000+ population Toronto 5,118,992 95 1.86 78 1.71 Montréal 3,586,221 57 1.59 76 2.24 Vancouver 2,126,111 44 2.07 54 2.78 Calgary 1,023,666 11 1.07 15 1.62 Edmonton 997,938 22 2.20 23 2.50 Ottawa 866,621 10 1.15 10 1.28 Québec 709,323 3 0.42 10 1.40 Winnipeg 688,746 18 2.61 19 2.85 Hamilton 682,741 9 1.32 12 1.81 Kitchener 470,022 1 0.21 5 1.14 Total 15,800,359 269 1.70 296 2.04 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 2003 Average Census Metropolitan Area 1993-2002 Population Number Rate Number Rate 100,000 - 499,999 population London 464,076 8 1.72 5 1.04 St. Catharines -Niagara 429,949 6 1.40 6 1.33 Halifax 377,932 3 0.79 7 2.12 Windsor 329,241 9 2.73 6 2.07 Victoria 323,592 5 1.55 6 2.07 Oshawa 319,935 1 0.31 2 0.84 Gatineau 276,933 3 1.08 4 1.56 Saskatoon 241,391 8 3.31 6 2.55 Regina 197,734 10 5.06 5 2.56 4/5/05 Crime_E
Census Metropolitan Area 1993-2002 Population Number Rate Number Rate 2003 Average Census Metropolitan Area 1993-2002 Population Number Rate Number Rate St. John’s 177,843 2 1.12 2 1.31 Greater Sudbury 160,113 1 0.62 3 1.88 Abbotsford 157,720 8 5.07 2 1.30 Kingston 153,707 5 3.25 3 1.65 Saguenay 148,061 0 0.00 1 0.73 Sherbrooke 145,766 0 0.00 2 1.28 Saint John 144,752 1 0.69 2 1.41 Trois-Rivières 144,262 0 0.00 2 1.39 Thunder Bay 124,628 1 0.80 3 2.41 Total 4,787,657 72 1.50 69 1.59 CMA totals 20,588,016 341 1.66 365 1.94 < 100,000 population 11,041,661 207 1.87 216 1.94 Canada 31,629,677 548 1.73 581 1.94 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Homicide 4/5/05 Crime_E
Crime in Canada Some preliminary conclusions: - There appear to be some trends that would be useful to explain - There are some fluctuations over time - There are definitely inter-provincial variances which should be explained 4/5/05 Crime_E