Demographic Transition Widely accepted throughout the field of geography. All countries go through it, but at different rates and at different times.

Stage 1 High CDR and CBR Zero or very low NIR (natural increase rate) Low population level Most of human history, but no countries today Very low standard of living: little education, no medical care, no industrialization, rural dwellers, subsistence economy

Stage 2 High CBR CDR begins to drop rapidly NIR increases rapidly Population gets larger (very quickly) Due to industrial revolution in Europe (late 1700s) Medical revolution in LDCs during the late 1900s Pollution (increased industrialization), mass production (cash economy), some medical care, some education, increasingly urban

Stage 3 CDR continues to drop, CBR begins to drop NIR drops rapidly Population continues to grow, but less rapidly Population is at its highest level CBR drops because people decide to have fewer children once IMR declines. Smaller families, higher standards of living, medical and education for most, urbanized society, highly industrialized

Stage 4 CDR is equal to CBR, but both are at low levels NIR is zero Population stays constant at a high level – “Zero Population Growth (ZPG)” Urbanized societies with gender equality; high end service industry drives economy

Basic Assumptions of Model This process goes along with increased industrialization, technology, and medical advances in a country. All countries will develop along the same patterns as western Europe throughout the 1800s and 1900s. Does not take into account immigration or emigration.

Critique of Demographic Transition Model Some countries did not go through early stages (United States, Australia) Doesn’t take into consideration disease and other wide-spread population reducers (war) Western Europe and the United States were able to go through the stages because of exploitation of human and natural resources from other places. Will the LDCs have access to the same resources? What about population shrinkage? Is there a stage 5?

Population Pyramids

Gallery Crawl Fill out information sheet for each station Make sure to use your notes to guide your answers.

Quiz

Crude birth rate: The total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in a society. Crude death rate: The total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in a society. Natural Increase rate: The percentage by which a population grows in a year. (CBR - CDR / 10 = the rate of natural increase in %)