Where has the warming gone?

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Presentation transcript:

Where has the warming gone? Richard Allan University of Reading/NCAS climate Collaborators: Norman Loeb (NASA, USA), Greg Johnson (NOAA, USA), John Lyman (NOAA, USA), Brian Soden (Univ Miami, USA) Over the last decade the rate of global warming appears to have dwindled. Is this important and what are the implications?

Global Warming…

Global Warming ?

Earth’s energy balance in space Thermal/Infra-red or Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)=σTe4 S πr2 Absorbed Solar or Shortwave Radiation (S/4)(1-α) There is a balance between the absorbed sunlight and the thermal radiative cooling of the planet 4

“Radiative forcing” of climate Increases in greenhouse gases heat the planet by trapping heat Small pollutant particles (aerosols) cool the planet by reflecting sunlight If more energy is arriving than is leaving the planet, Earth should warm…

Heating Rate in Watts per square metre Missing energy? Scientists had previously highlighted a large discrepancy between energy arriving at our planet and heat entering the ocean Heating Rate in Watts per square metre

Measuring Earth’s energy flows CERES Satellite instruments measure energy arriving and leaving our planet Sunlight & thermal radiation Automated floats measure heating of the ocean ARGO floats 

Top of Atmosphere Radiative Energy Fluxes CERES/TERRA, September 2004

Top of Atmosphere Radiative Energy Fluxes CERES/TERRA, September 2004

Top of Atmosphere Radiative Energy Fluxes CERES/TERRA, September 2004

Combining satellite measurements with ocean observations… We found that heat is continuing to accumulate The rate of heating is 0.5 Watts per square metre (this is equivalent to the heat of 250 billion 1 kilo-Watt electric heaters distributed over the planet) Fi gure 3 (a) Global annual average net TOA flux from CERES observations and (b) ERA Interim reanalysis are anchored to an estimate of Earth’s heating rate for 2006–2010 5 The Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (PMEL/JPL/JIMAR) ocean heating rate estimates4 use data from Argo and World Ocean Database 2009; uncertainties for upper ocean heating rates are given at one-standard error derived from sampling uncertainties. The gray bar in (b) corresponds to one standard deviation about the 2001–2010 average net TOA flux of 15 CMIP3 models.