The Science of hurricanes

Highlights Atlantic storms start as weather disturbances in Africa moves over the ocean where the heat from the water fuels the storm Water temp needs to be at least 80 degrees Rotation of the earth causes storm to start spinning As it spins it becomes more compact and more powerful Most storms die out fairly quickly Few storms become tropical storms and even fewer become hurricanes Storms lose energy as it goes over land

Facts about hurricanes Storms get names after they develop into tropical depressions Names are determined ahead of the season Names are re-used for other seasons Alphabetical order, male-female every other For devastating and deadly hurricanes, names are retired

Trade winds determine the path of a hurricane

Computer models predict where the hurricane will go Cone of uncertainty Probability of the hurricane striking any part within the cone Harder to predict many days into the future

Models improve over time Become more accurate Better able to make predictions Every storm improves the model Same data is collected for every storm What is this an example of? repetition

Scientific design Various research entities conduct their own models using the same data All the models are compiled to create cone of uncertainty What is this an example of? replication

What other data are collected? Rainfall Storm surge Inland Flooding Wind speeds Coastal flooding erosion

Common terminology Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the area. Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions are possible in the area. Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds. Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the area. Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions are expected in the area. Warnings are issued 36 hours in advance of tropical storm force winds.

Common terminology Eye: Clear, sometimes well-defined center of the storm with calmer conditions. Eye Wall: Surrounding the eye, contains some of the most severe weather of the storm with the highest wind speed and largest precipitation. Rain Bands: Bands coming off the cyclone that produce severe weather conditions such as heavy rain, wind and tornadoes. Storm Surge: An often underestimated and deadly result of ocean water swelling as a result of a landfalling storm, and quickly flooding coastal and sometimes areas further inland.

Saffir-simpson scale

How does this help us? preparation Evacuations Securing valuables and pets Early warning system for the vulnerable Put away loose items outside

Where do you find information on storms? Local news National hurricane center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Twitter - https://twitter.com/Space_Station?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eser p%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp

Hurricane Matthew: what we know Made landfall in Haiti this morning U.s. landfall still uncertain Maximum sustained winds: 145 mph Hurricane-force winds: Up to 40 miles from the center tropical-storm-force winds: up to 185 miles.

What to expect Loss of electricity (possibly for days) Possible loss of water Down power lines (don’t go out after the storm!) Possible evacuation

Florida is really good at hurricanes Don’t panic! Florida is really good at hurricanes Emphasis on how deadly hurricanes can be are mostly meant for people who insist on “riding out” the storm

Science and hurricanes Collect data Create models Make predictions Plan for emergencies