Western Air Quality Study (WAQS) Intermountain Data Warehouse (IWDW) Review of Emissions Projections for IWDW-WAQS 2011b platform future year modeling WAQS Modeling Team October 29, 2015 IWDW-WAQS Technical Committee Call

Emissions Projections Review Objectives and background Review basin-level O&G emissions data available from IWDW-WAQS, EPA NEI, and other sources 2011 Future projection years Technical Committee recommendation on O&G emissions data to use in 2011b future year projection modeling Review summaries of state-level by species data for other emission source categories Review schedule for future year modeling Identify Technical Committee call/meeting time windows in late 2015 and early 2016

Western Basin Base and Future Year O&G VOC Emissions 3-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Phase II vs.. NEI2011v6 (NEI) O&G inventories for 3SAQS basins Both inventories have base years as 2011 Future year plots labeled 2025: the 3SAQS projection year is 2020; the NEI projection year is 2025 VOC is mostly from surveyed (nonpoint) sources Biggest differences in 2011 are in the Williston and Piceance Basins Biggest differences in the projection year are in the D-J, Piceance, and Uinta Basins

Western Basin Base and Future Year O&G NOx Emissions NOx is mixed between permitted (point) and surveyed (nonpoint) sources Biggest differences in 2011 are in the S. San Juan, N. San Juan, and Williston Basins Biggest differences in the projection year are in the Piceance, D-J, and S. San Juan Basins

Western Basin O&G Emissions Trends: Future - Base Difference plots between the future and base years: O&G emissions trends for the 3SAQS and NEI Other than the Piceance basin, the VOC trends for the 3SAQS and NEI inventories are in the same direction Big differences in the VOC trends for D-J, Williston, and Piceance Basins The NOx trends are mixed between the 3SAQS and NEI inventories Big differences in the NOx trends in most basins

Denver-Julesburg Basin Inventories Recent updates to the D-J Basin inventory by CDPHE and RAQC show significant differences with the NEI and 3SAQS inventories, particularly with the projected VOC emissions

Summary of IWDW-WAQS 2020 D-J Basin production estimates IWDW-WAQS 2020 estimate is lower than RAQC’s 2017 estimate of 143,656,174 bbl. Metric Gas production (MCF) Oil production (bbl) Well count Spud count Basin wide 565,433,216 98,638,590 38,466 1,725

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions VOC CO NOx VOC (no biogenics)

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 NH3 CH4

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions Methane 90% of the UT Area O&G CH4 is from pneumatic devices and dehydrators 97% of the CA Nonpoint CH4 is from landfills

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 NH3 CH4 (no O&G)

2011 vs. 2025 Emissions SO2 Big reductions from base to future in EGU Point SO2 in several states

2018 vs. 2025 Emissions VOC CO NOx VOC (no biogenics)

2018 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 NH3 CH4

2018 vs. 2025 Emissions PM2.5 SO2 NH3 CH4 (no O&G)

WAQS Project Timeline Apr 2016 Jul 2015 2016 SEP-OCT 2011b CMAQ Modeling MAY-AUG 2014a WRF DEC 2011b Platform Release MAR 2025 Platform Release DEC-FEB 2025 CMAQ and CAMx JUL-AUG 2011b CAMx Modeling OCT-NOV 2011b MPE, 2025 SMOKE Apr 2016 Jul 2015 2016 DEC 2015 Technical Comm Call: status of DW and modeling SEP 2015 Technical Comm Meeting Phase 2 SoW complete JUL 2015 Technical Comm Call mid-JAN 2016 Technical Comm Meeting: Review 2011b MPE late FEB/early MAR 2016 Technical Comm Call or Meeting: Close out on Phase 2 deliverables OCT 2015 Technical Comm Call: Emissions Projections