Market Cycles: Election Years

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Presentation transcript:

Market Cycles: Election Years Eric Lane Associate Manager, Finance Sector

Disclaimer My…… political philosophy …… political history Why none of this matters

A Brief History of Time How HAVE the markets performed during Presidential election years?

S&P 500: 1/1999 – 12/2007

The 4-year Cycle: 1950-2004

2008 – A Different Kind of Election Now onto the present…… 2008 – A Different Kind of Election

The Iowa Electronic Market Democrat or Republican

The Iowa Electronic Market Democrat Nomination

Democrat President in 2008? Metals Traditional Winners Traditional Losers Metals Trade Regulations Alternate Energy and Environmental Cleanup Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae Homebuilders Oil and Gas Pharmaceuticals Insurance Providers Defense

Big Pharma PHLX Drug Index

PHLX Oil Services Index Big Oil PHLX Oil Services Index

Barack Obama (D) Senator from Illinois

Policy Platform Cracking down on mortgage fraud Helping homeowners avoid foreclosure Middle Class Tax Relief "Making Work Pay" credit American Opportunity Tax credit Retirement Security Health Care Reform Alternative Energy

Hillary Clinton (D) Senator from New York

Policy Platform Ending the foreclosure crisis Stimulus Package High-wage job growth Health Care Reform Leveling the Economic Playing Field Strategic Energy Fund Special Interest reform Health Care Trade

John McCain (R) Senator from Arizona

Policy Platform Pro-Growth Tax Policy Social Security and Medicare Keep tax rate low Make permanent Bush income and investment tax cuts Cut the corporate tax rate Ban Internet and cell phone taxes Social Security and Medicare Trade Health Care Market-based energy reform

The Best Option? Gridlock.