Scenarios (1) Round 1 - (December 2006) Baselines &file 30/11/2018 Scenarios (1) Round 1 - (December 2006) Baselines Member States NECD baseline EU-wide NECD baseline with a low carbon constraint (€ 20/tCO2) EU-wide NECD baseline with high carbon constraint (€ 90/tCO2) Optimisation according to interim objectives of the Air Strategy "Strategy" Vs. Member States NECD baseline Vs. EU-wide NECD baseline with low a carbon constraint (€ 20/tCO2) Vs. EU-wide NECD baseline with high carbon constraint (€ 90)

Scenarios (2) Round 2 – Additional scenarios (February 2007) &file 30/11/2018 Scenarios (2) Round 2 – Additional scenarios (February 2007) Optimization according to European Parliament resolution: “Parliament amendment” Scenario run for selected future community measures: “Community measures” Scenario runs including the effect of including ship emissions: “Ship emissions”

Scenarios (3) Round 3 - Sensitivity runs (April 2007) &file 30/11/2018 Scenarios (3) Round 3 - Sensitivity runs (April 2007) Optimisation according to interim objectives of the Air Strategy vs alternative baselines Assuming climate policy meeting -20% CO2 reduction by 2020 Assuming climate policy according to the full GAINS model Other sensitivity runs Different emission scenarios for non EU-Member States Sensitivity to meteorological years (extreme year) All Member States respect their NEC ceilings by 2010