Ava Dejoie Louisiana Workforce Commission Louisiana Long-term and Short-term Employment Projections and Star Jobs Overview Ava Dejoie Louisiana Workforce Commission

Process Overview: Occupational Forecast & Star-Rating System Occupational projections Updated annually upon receipt of new employment data Two-step process: Projections by Industry Projections by Occupation Star-Rating system Updated annually based on new demand projections, wage data, and openings data Ratings by Occupation Data Based on Census of all Employers in Louisiana.

Methodology: Industry Projections 94 distinct industries in each RLMA (statewide + 8 regions  846 total) 2 forecasts per industry-region: short-term (2017) & long-term (2024) Produce baseline statistical model projections, using historical data and Projections Suite software Review and refine baseline projections: Analyze prevailing economic trends: develop & evaluate several alternative candidate models Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments (additional input from industry associations and regional economic development organizations) Incorporate economic development initiatives and major announcements including expansions and layoffs Include macro economic variables like GDP, Inflation, exchange rate fluctuations,

Example of Simple Statistical Modeling Post-Katrina Food Industry Forecasts – Could ne technical and dropped

Example Where Statistical Models Struggle Auto Industry Forecasts – Could be technical and dropped Fine tuning these forecasts rely on additional information including Industry inputs, driver firms interviews and regional workforce development board

Key Points Good statistical models should always be the starting point Forecasts are always a mix of science and judgment Louisiana has numerous exogenous shocks that are large relative to industry size, which make life harder In some sectors, local knowledge trumps statistical models Hurricane Katrina, Rita, Ike, BP Oil Spill to name a few. Rely on local knowledge on emerging sectors in regions

How Important are Driver Firms? 2% of LA businesses have 100 or more employees Employ over 44% of LA workers Contribute $4.67 billion in direct wages Create total Louisiana Sales of $61.89 billion Large firms are more likely to generate funds from outside LA that support the local economy Don’t ignore small firms! Make sure core and secondary industries in each region are represented, small industries’ input also included through inputs of their associations and chambers of commerce.

Converting: Industry to Occupation Staffing Patterns Mix of occupations in each industry Based on recent historical data specific to LA regions Change Factors How proportion of occupation relative to entire industry changes over time Replacement Rates Attrition rate, due to retirement or permanently leaving job for any reason Staffing Patterns: Through a survey of all employers in Louisiana which has a 85% response rate. Each industries’ staffing pattern on how many accountants, how many IT professionals and how many maintenance workers work are required is gathered. Change Factors: Incorporates some occupations that are not needed anymore (typists – 20 years ago was needed everywhere and now almost not needed, data scientists – 10 years ago we did not have such an occupation but with the advent of big data this occupation now is growing at a much faster pace compared to the rest).

Augmenting Data Sources: Change Factors HWC Reports Increase for Primary Care and Mid-level providers Increasing role of IT in healthcare LA State Board of Nursing Registered Nurse license and survey data LED announcements and firm engagement Planned expansions/ relocations that will impact staffing ratios of relevant industries in upcoming years Continued theme of increasing importance of IT professionals Driver Firm interviews

Augmenting Data Sources: Replacement Rates WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) and Pre-WARN Notices Healthcare Occupations: Health Works Survey, 2012 & 2013 LA State Board of Nursing license data Specialty Trade Contractors/ Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction: Alliance Safety Council annual training data SW LA Construction Users Council (SLCUC) data on age profile of existing craft workforce Other Occupations Driver firm interviews

Augmenting Data Sources: Regional Stakeholder Inputs The following organizations contributed by providing driver firm contacts, data, or reviewing forecasts and providing feedback ABC BRAC WDB 40 AFL-CIO CLEDA WDB 41 GBRIA GNO Inc WDB 61 LABI LEDA LABSWE LCA NELEA LSBN LED NLEP LSBME LHA One Acadiana LSBOE LMOGA SWLA EDA LSBPNE

Occupational Forecast Summary Short-Term Occupation through 2017 Average Annual Job Growth 17,686 Average Annual Replacement Demand: 51,218 Total Annual Demand: 68,904 Long-Term Occupation through 2024 Average Annual Total Job Growth 15,934 Average Annual Replacement Demand: 50,836 Total Annual Demand: 66,770 Annually Louisiana’s private sectors demand for skilled workforce is over 66,000 jobs Many of them are high skilled and high demand occupations and will need Higher Education to respond to Industry needs through a better alignment

Rating Occupations: Stars LWC website provides info on available jobs: Wages Educational requirements Star Rating Star Rating: decision aid for job-seekers, employers, and policy planners Rates a job by “how well it pays, and the occupation’s outlook” Intended to reflect opportunity offered by an occupation, rather than measure subjective job quality

Star Rating System: Structure Star Rating components for each occupation: Short-term outlook Long-term outlook Current Openings Wages Rank each component, based on decile Convert the average of component rankings to Stars

Star Rating System: Vetting Process Developed in partnership with LSU’s Economic Research Policy Group. Reviewed by Occupational Forecasting Council Approved by Workforce Investment Council OFC made up of 2 Economists, LED, BoR, Business and Industry, AFL-CIO partners WIC has a membership representing both industry and state agencies.

4-5 Star Jobs Span Across Educational Spectrum Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree Postsecondary Non-degree Star Rating Occupational Title Average Annual Wage Annual Total Demand ««««« Registered Nurses $62,455 1,910 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers $59,479 40 «««« Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technicians $55,985 50 Occupational Therapy Assistants $54,050 20 Star Rating Occupational Title Average Annual Wage Annual Total Demand ««««« Mechanical Engineers $98,308 120 Computer Systems Analysts $72,539 90 Software Developers, Applications $78,102 Chemical Engineers $113,844 Star Rating Occupational Title Average Annual Wage Annual Total Demand ««««« Electricians $48,709 530 Industrial Machinery Mechanics $51,962 420 «««« Riggers $38,276 200

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