Challenges of statistics on international migration in the CIS region

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Presentation transcript:

Challenges of statistics on international migration in the CIS region High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration in the CIS countries UNECE, Federal State Statistics Service of Russia Gelendzhik, 16-18 October 2013 Challenges of statistics on international migration in the CIS region Millions of people residing in CIS are involved into migrations and the biggest part of movements takes place within the region: about 92% of immigrants come from / and 75% of emigrants go to another CIS country, 50-99% of labour migrants also move to another CIS country Temporary forms of migration are prevailing Most part of labour migrants are undocumented Russia is the main destination country both for long-term and temporary migrants from the other CIS states. In 2000-2011 it has positive net-migration with all CIS countries (except Belarus). 70-90% of temporary migrant-workers move to Russia; After the breakdown of the USSR migration ties between some of the former soviet republics (excluding Russia) weakened dramatically ( for example, Ukraine – Central Asia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan-Tajikistan, Turkmenistan - all the other countries); Mobility of the indigenous population of the Central Asia considerably increased during the last decade Olga Chudinovskikh, Lomonosov Moscow State University / Higher School of economics

Overview Positive trends of the latest decade Peculiarities of migration in the CIS region and its reflection in statistics Producers and main types of data – a system, but not separate elements Main challenges in the sphere of statistics on migration through the prism of statistics on permanent-type and temporary labour migration Concluding remarks

Positive trends of the last decade Development of migration modules in the questionnaires used at the recent censuses Every country has agencies that collect almost all types of data related to migration (level of development and interactions may differ) More sources are involved into data processing and exchange at the national level (depending on financial support and political will of data producers). More data are published , access to statistics becomes easier (including microdata). Diversification of published statistics. Development of mutual understanding between national statistical agencies and administrative bodies collecting data on migration and related events

National statistical agency Producers of migration (and related events) data at the national level in the CIS states National statistical agency Agencies responsible for populaiton registration, migration and citizenship Data for statistics of flows “Current” registration of flows Data on labour migration Work permits Asylum Residence permits Citizenship Administrative practices ets. Data on refugees and IDPs Data on repatriants Censuses Data on entries and exits by countries, purposes and types of transport Border service Что есть: Происходит развитие, наращивается национальный потенциал, увеличивается количество доступных источников и данных Labour force and living standards surveys Ministry of education Foreign students: enrollment, stock and graduates Other agencies MFA Visa statistics, Citizenship Data on registrations in consulates

Personal experience: an attempt to analyze a general image of migration process in the CIS region Data that were the subject of analysis characterized 1) permanent-type migration – censuses of the recent round annual (current) statistics of flows 2) labour migration (mainly temporary), Including available data of different surveys, censuses , administrative data of migration authorities and expert estimates

What did the recent censuses show? Dramatic decrease of population born in the European part of the former USSR, mainly these people represent “old” generations. Considerable increase of population born in the Central Asian region (mainly – of working ages) “Foreign born” population step by step started to represent real international migration (not “statistical” foreign born that was counted right after the breakdown of the USSR). People born in a certain country and having its citizenship differ by country and comparing to each other. Some examples: Population born in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine decreased dramatically in all CIS states (5-10 times in Transcaucasia and Central Asia; 1,5 - 2 times – in others countries) Population born in the Central Asia, Armenia and Azerbaijan increased considerably in Russia (1,5 - 3,5 times). Volumes of migration flows decreased and are stabilizing (despite the new data of Rosstat)

Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Russia by country of birth (times)

Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Kazakhstan by country of birth (times)

Dynamics of foreign population in Kazakhstan and Russia between the censuses of 2000 and 2010 rounds (times)

Belarus Born Citizens

Tajikistan Born Citizens

Turkey Born Citizens

What did analysis of flows data show? CIS area is not a homogeneous migration space Migration is very selective Millions of people residing in CIS are involved into migrations and the biggest part of movements takes place within the region: about 92% of immigrants come from / and 75% of emigrants go to another CIS country, Russia is the main destination country both for long-term and temporary migrants from the other CIS states. In 2000-2011 it has positive net- migration with all CIS countries (except Belarus). After the breakdown of the USSR migration ties between some of the former soviet republics (excluding Russia) weakened dramatically ( for example, Ukraine – Central Asia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan- Tajikistan, Turkmenistan - all the other countries);

Prevalence of movement within the area (permanent type migration) 2000-2010 % of immigrants from / emigrants to the other CIS state Reference periods for the countries differ because of data availability :

Permanent Net Migration in CIS countries, 2000-2010 (in 1000’s) Data of the national statistical office of : ARM AZ BEL KAZ KYRG MOLD RUS TAJ TURK UKR UZB 2 1 168 11 AZER -4 3 111 -1 9 -1  -11 -9 -2 GEOR 83 15 -34 423 -28 16 -217 KYRGYS 19 171 -7 100 30 -56 -18 39 -395 -290 -26 -73 -52 4 119 32 46 -3 20 -20 263 -17 274 343 -8 CIS -64 -16 92 -77 -324 -46 1821 -94 -88 51 -523 TOTAL -76 77 -173 -340 -55 1566 -90 -75 -584 На протяжении рассматриваемого периода после распада СССР только Россия и Беларусь в обмене со всеми странами СНГ имели положительное миграционное сальдо, хотя величины для РФ и Беларуси различаются в десятки раз. Другие государства на протяжении всего периода сочетали иммиграцию и эмиграцию в обмене с разными государствами, хотя их объемы, как правило, очень сильно различаются. Обращает на себя внимание тот факт, что миграционные перемещения в связи с переменой места постоянного жительства между многими новыми государствами практически прекратились. Речь идет, в первую очередь, идет о странах сравнительно малонаселенных или географически удаленных друг от друга. В итоге, значимые потоки постоянных мигрантов связывают Молдову с Россией и Украина, Киргизстан, Узбекистан и Туркменистан – с Россией и Казахстаном, Армению и Азербайджан – с Россией. Сравнительно тесные связи сохраняются между славянскими республиками.

Implementation of “mirror” statistics sometimes is not successful without knowledge of methodology changes and practices of data collection

Discrepancies in data on flows lead to a statistical phenomenon – pairs of countries have positive net migration in mutual migration exchange (Ukraine, Belarus and Russia)

Temporary labour migration in the CIS area: Main characteristics “Asymmetry” of roles: mainly sending or mainly receiving states Major part of workers move to the RF and partially – to Kazakhstan , migrants from the European countries of the CIS much more often chose the countries of the other part of the world. Most part of migrants are undocumented Temporary forms are prevailing Migrant-workers in Russia and Belarus mainly come from the CIS area, while the other countries invite skilled workers from the other part of the world. (CIS: RF > 90%, RB – 40%, Ukraine – 30%, RT and AzR – about 10%) CIS nationals are rare among highly skilled workers (in the RF- 7-8% )

Временная трудовая миграция: разброс оценок и малая сопоставимость данных стран-партнеров Volume Countries of Destinations Sources: Armenia 80 th. Russia (95%) Migration Service, 2010 Azerbaijan More 100 th Russia (more 80%) Estimation based on Russian data, 2011 Kyrgyzstan 250-300 th Russia (80-85%), Kazakhstan (15%) Population Census, 2009 Moldova 300 th. Russia (60%), EU (30%) Labor Force Survey, 2009-2010 Tajikistan 430 th Russia (95%-98%) Households Survey, 2008 Ukraine 1.5 mln Russia (48,1%), Italy (13.4%), Czech Rep. (11.9%) Ukrainian External Labor Migration. National survey 2005-2008. Uzbekistan > 1 mln Russia (60%-70%%) Kazakhstan (25%-30%%) Estimation based on Russian and Kazakhstan data, 2011

Compilation of data from different sources may show the scale of irregular labour migration Survey data (Kyrgyzstan) on absent population compared with the Federal Migr. Service of Russia data on issued work permits Migration cards (Tajikistan) and FMS data on issued work permits

IT development = growing importance of administrative data Alternatives to traditional “statistical” data sources (data on residence permits can partly substitute statistics of immigration flows) Admin. Data on work permits can be the main (if not the only) source of information on labour migration

Caution: fluctuations in admin. data should be treated with care Caution: fluctuations in admin. data should be treated with care. Temporary residence permits issued in Russia (thousand) Rapid increase in numbers for RK and KR are caused by the changes in legislation on citizenship. Before 2011 these migrants could apply for the RF citizenship without any additional status and did not need residence permit

Is it possible to harmonize definitions and methodologies in statistics of migration ? Seems to not realistic so far Even annual statistics of flows shows considerable discrepancies Solution: comprehensive metadata Competent users An intermediary agency that collects, harmonizes and publishes data from different states

A deadlock or a stimulus for joint efforts? Political decisions are usually based on data produced by national stat. agency If data are not good or interpreted incorrectly - decisions are not efficient Since the ties in the CIS area are still rather close, policy of a country is not indifferent to the neighbours Conclusion - Вывод – статистика миграции не имеет границ, и должна восприниматься как «своя» , вне зависимости от страны , где произведена

Concluding remarks What can we do? Statistics of flows - use e-format instead of paper carriers Censuses – questions about absent population should not limit time of absence (up to 5 hears) Surveys - to conduct sample surveys in the CIS area simultaneously or without considerable time interval, harmonized methodology and questionnaires, to create a joint database Diversification of data sources, involvement of administrative data related to migration and its consequences Methodology: revision of recommendation is necessary Coordination of efforts in the region via a respected agency with international (regional) mandate . ! To treat sources and data as a system, not as separate elements

Благодарю за внимание! Thank you for your attention!

Распределение мигрантов, зарегистрированных по месту пребывания , по срокам