Critical Questions What is Adaptive learning? Why is monitoring a critically important part of Adaptive learning? What does monitoring look like in practice?

Adaptive Situations Adaptive situations are ambiguous and complex. Action is determined by how we make sense of what’s going on. There is a lot of uncertainty about the effects our actions will have on the situation as we currently understand it. How I make sense of the situation ACTION Responding to an adaptive situation is a learning process. Uncertainty is relatively low when dealing with a situation that has a high probability for technical solution. Diagnosing and repairing a mechanical issue with a car for example. In these cases prior learning or knowledge is applied to solve the problem. Often the difference between technical and adaptive challenges is just a matter of degree regarding uncertainty, complexity, and risk associated with unanticipated outcomes.

Adaptive Learning Process How I define “the problem” What I think is causing it Theory of Action What I think should be done What I predict will happen Strategizing Experimentation Sensemaking What I did What happened What I learned

Adaptive Learning Process Sensemaking How I define “the problem” What I think is causing it Strategizing Theory of Action What I think should be done What I predict will happen What I did What happened Experimentation What I learned Monitoring

Experimentation in Adaptive Situations Uncertainty is irreducible Relevant information is always limited Risk is high: Innovation and change directly impact people in the system

Why is Monitoring Important? Monitoring during experimentation is a way to manage risk when we must act but don’t have access to all the relevant information we need

What to Monitor What I did – Implementation of the Theory of Action What happened – Am I getting the results I anticipated?

What to do Decide what indicators to track over time Make periodic observations Confirm successful performance Identify side effects or unanticipated outcomes Modify and adjust “on the fly”

What is an indicator? Something that shows what conditions are Measuring instrument Something giving information Example: Blood pressure, temperature and cholesterol levels are indicators of health

Adaptive Situation Case Study Sensemaking Detroit parents send 1000 kids to a suburban district that provides transportation Parents lack transportation options for Detroit schools

Theory of Action If we do these things…. Provide free AM transportation to charter and DPS buildings in NW Detroit …then we predict this will happen. Provide after school tutoring and enrichment activities with free PM transportation for participating students Increased enrollment in charter and Detroit public schools within next 5 years Provide free transportation to licensed day care for working parents

Monitoring What I did What are some indicators you’d want to monitor to track how this theory of action is being implemented? Provide free AM transportation to charter and DPS buildings in NW Detroit What happened What indicators would you use to monitor the impact of the actions being taken? Provide after school tutoring and enrichment activities with free PM transportation for participating students Increased enrollment in charter and Detroit public schools within next 5 years Provide free after school transportation to licensed day care for working parents

Some Examples: What I did… Percentage of AM/PM busses that run on time Number of students riding bus to each school Number of students participating in tutoring Number of students in enrichment programs Number of students in day care Parent satisfaction with transportation, tutoring, enrichment, and day care

Some Examples: What happened… Student enrollment over projection counts by Detroit school Percentage of students in enrollment area that opt for suburban school of choice

Monitoring questions to Consider Who or what do we expect to change? What’s the current status of this indicator? How much change is required to call this a success? How often will we measure each indicator?

Success Indicator Statement Example: Percentage of students in enrollment area that opt for suburban school of choice will decline from 30% to __% within 5 years. Frequency: every student count day

Success Indicator Example __% of AM and PM busses run on time Frequency: Weekly until __% of busses are running on time. Then monthly for the remainder of the project.

Monitoring Questions to Consider Who or what do we expect to change? What’s the current status of this indicator? How much change is required to call this a success? How often will we measure each indicator? Your turn: Select 1 of the things you identified for monitoring in the case study and work with a partner to write a success indicator statement similar to the examples that were just shared.

Summary of Key Points Dealing with uncertainty and ambiguity is a learning process Adaptive learning involves a cyclical process of sensemaking, strategizing, and experimentation to test and refine a theory of action Monitoring during experimentation helps manage risk when we must act but don’t have access to all the relevant information we need

Monitoring If you don’t keep track of where you’re going you’ll probably end up someplace else…

Application Identify one or two things you think will occur as you implement your theory of action and write a success indicator statement you could use to monitor what happens Give me a shout if you want feedback or need assistance adapting this to your situation…