Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in the Southeast

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Presentation transcript:

Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone in the Southeast Daniel Cohan, Yongtao Hu, Amir Hakami, and Ted Russell Models-3 Users’ Workshop October 27, 2003

Fall-Line Air Quality Study CMAQ-DDM-3D, v.4.3: Chemistry: SAPRC-99 Diffusion: Eddy diffusivity, with modified Kzz limits DDM-3D: 1st and 2nd order; gas-phase only Emissions (SMOKE): NET-99 projected to 2000 BEIS-3 biogenics CEM for point sources Enhanced inventory for GA Meteorology (MM5 v.3.5.3): August 11-20, 2000 OSU/Eta LSM, MRF PBL 36-km resolution 12-km resolution

DDM and Brute Force ∆Ci a1 Dpj Conc. (e.g., O3) Sens. Parameter (e.g., VOC Emissions) Dpj

Decoupled Direct Method 3D Concentrations (t) Concentrations (t+Δt) Chemistry Advection & Diffusion I.C., B.C., Emissions Chemistry Sensitivities (t) Sensitivities (t+Δt)

DDM Statistical Agreement: r2 of DDM vs. Brute Force (+/- 10% NOx)

Peak Hour Ozone and its Sensitivities (sens. scaled to 100%E) Sens to NOx Ozone Concentrations Sens To VOC 2nd Ord. Sens to NOx 5pm EDT, Aug. 17, 2000 (max. observed = 173 ppb)

Downtown Atlanta: Ozone & its sensitivities, Aug. 11-20, 2000

Macon: Ozone & its sensitivities, Aug. 11-20, 2000

Variability of Ozone Sensitivity to NOx (Hourly Average +/- 1, in ppmv, Aug. 13-20, 2000)

Ozone Sensitivity to NOx: Domainwide v. Local Emissions Zero line

Taylor-Series Expansion: Decomposing Changes in Ozone O3,A 1st-Order: E * S1 2nd-Order: 0.5(E)2 * S2 O3,B B EB Emissions EA

Reduction in Ozone due to 50% Reduction in NOx & VOC Error: DDM 1st Order only Reduction in Ozone due to 50% Reduction in NOx & VOC Ozonebase – Ozone50%emis … with 2nd order 5pm EDT, Aug. 17, 2000

50% Reduction in NOx and VOC Ozone Reduction for 50% Reduction in NOx and VOC 8-day average: Aug. 13-20, 2000

Ozone Isopleths at Peak Hour Atlanta Macon Ozone (ppmV) August 17, 2000 (from the method of Hakami et al., 2003)

Conclusions CMAQ-DDM-3D accurately computes 1st and 2nd order gas-phase sensitivities. Aerosol sensitivities in progress. Include DDM-3D in future releases of CMAQ? Ozone primarily NOx-limited during episode. VOC sensitivity confined to urban cores. Response to local and regional NOx emissions can differ. Non-linearities affect ozone response to large perturbations in emissions. Using linear term alone underestimates benefit of large NOx reductions. Ignoring cross sensitivities overestimates benefit of joint NOX-VOC reductions in cities. Ongoing work: Further explore sensitivity to point & local emissions. Economic optimization of control strategies.