Principals' Upfront Dialogue Series, 01 March 2017 The 2016 Matric Results – are we heading in the right direction? A comparative look at some trend data Principals' Upfront Dialogue Series, 01 March 2017 Dr BA Damonse National Research Foundation

Participation in NSC Examination YEAR MALE ENTRIES FEMALE ENTRIES TOTAL ENTRIES (F/T) 2008 244 843 288 718 533 561 2009 251 467 300 606 552 073 2010 244 358 293 185 537 543 2011 230 846 265 244 496 090 2012 233 802 277 350 511 152 2013 253 471 308 641 562 112 2014 243 065 289 795 532 860 2015 293 949 350 587 644 536 2016 276 626 333 552 610 178 Overall improving participation and retention. Behind the figures – those staying the system actually follow one of 4 pathways; 47% follow a smooth pathway – move on directly from grade 9- grade 12 b) 40% follow a staggered pathway . Grade repetition is a serious constraint and shows stark difference by both race and gender. c)7% stuck in Grade 9 or 10 d) 7% leave, often in grade 9 and never return to school.

Performance (pass rate) of candidates in the NSC examination Overall improving participation and retention –more learners who get to Grade 9 write matric.

The pass rate decreased in Mpumalanga and Limpopo from 2015 Pass rate by province 63 77 83 85 66 79 86 59 88 In 2016 Free State obtained the highest percentage pass rate (88%), but had the fewest learners The pass rate decreased in Mpumalanga and Limpopo from 2015 (84.7) (69.4) (56.8) (81.6) (60.7) (81.5) (84.2) (65.9) (78.6) 2015 2016

No. of Bachelors passes

Percentage of learners achieving above 50% (2013-2016) Mathematics and Physical Science seen as “canaries in the cold mine” as it were, pointing t overall health of the system. Gateway subjects required to meet the demand for high end skills in the country. Pool of learners accessing careers in STEM subjects is too small currently. Build sequentially so that poor foundations are not easily addressed by late interventions. Diagnostic report show that many of the mistakes in the matric exam are as a result of poor understanding of basic foundations and competencies taught in earlier grades. This speaks to both the knowledge base of the teachers and the teaching and learning contexts in which this happens. Case study – Maths literacy – artisanal work.

Skills Supply

Performance Gap - HCD Producing more than 100 doctoral graduates per million of population, i.e. 5 000 PhDs pa by 2030

Number of students enrolled in public HEIs by major field of study from 2012 to 2014

Change in average score of selected countries from 2003 to 2015 Timms Grade 9, 2015 Change in average score of selected countries from 2003 to 2015 *South Africa participated at Grade 9 level in both years and Botswana tested at Grade 8 in 2003 and Grade 9 in 2015

Moved from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ TIMMS Grade 9 The headline finding for participation at the Grade 9 level is   “South African performance from 2003 to 2015 showed the highest positive change, of the 25 participating countries, with an improvement of 87 points for mathematics and 90 points for science for this period – equivalent to an improvement of just over two grades.” Moved from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ HSRC, 30/11/16

TIMMS Grade 5 And at the Grade 5 level (first time participation) headline finding is: “Results show very clearly the correlation between early learning experiences and future educational success. While 90% of learners had attended some form of pre-school education it is only learners from fee paying and independent schools that benefitted from this.  Learners in no-fee school do not appear to get the same boost from attending pre-schools, suggesting that the quality investment in early years is crucial for those most in need.”  HSRC, 30/11/16

Percentage of learners performing at the TIMSS benchmarks in mathematics by province, 2015

TIMSS 2015 Highlights of mathematics achievement amongst Grade 5 South African learners

In Conclusion…… South African achievement continues to remain highly unequal There has been positive progress on issues of access, equity and redress BUT, despite some progress… Gains are slow – performance moving from very low to low Improved science and mathematics achievements remains elusive 30% pass mark? Educational supply mismatch –need to graduate more STEM graduates from Universities and TVET colleges Conditions of schools and school climate for teaching and learning of ongoing concern Overall challenge remains on improving QUALITY of the system

Source Documents Department of Basic Education: Technical Report 2015; Performance Report 2016 Mail & Guardian: “Class of 2016’s mixed bag of results” http://mg.co.za/author/vija-reddy-1 National Income Dynamics Study (UCT) TIMSSSA Policy Brief (HSRC) Skills Supply & Demand in South Africa (DHET, Labour Market Intelligence Partnership) South African Youth Panel Study (HSRC)