Putting it All Together 03/01/17 AP Macro Mr. Warner

What you will learn in this Module: 03/01/17 What you will learn in this Module: How can we use macroeconomic models to conduct policy analysis? How to approach free-response macroeconomics questions?

A Structure for Macroeconomic Analysis 03/01/17 A starting point A pivotal event Initial effects of the event Secondary and long-run effects of the event Assume that the United States economy is in a long-run equilibrium. (a) Draw a correctly labeled long run graph of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and show each of the following for the United States. (i) The current equilibrium output level, labeled Ye, and the current equilibrium price level, labeled PLe.   (b) Suppose that consumer confidence in the United States experiences a significant downturn. In the graph drawn in part (a), show the impact of weakened consumer confidence. In the graph, show any changes to the equilibrium price level and the equilibrium output level. (c) Assume that the central bank of the United States is prepared to take action to reverse the economic impacts shown in part (b). (i) Should the central bank buy or sell bonds in an open market operation? (ii) How does the central bank’s action in part (c)(i) affect the nominal interest rate? Explain. (d) The United States and Mexico are major trading partners. How would the weak consumer confidence in the United States affect the balance of payments current account with Mexico? Explain. (e) Consider the foreign exchange market for the United States dollar. Based only upon your response to part (d), how are each of the following affected? (i) The supply of the United States dollar relative to the Mexican peso. (ii) The value of the dollar relative to the peso. 3

A Structure for Macroeconomic Analysis 03/01/17 Assume that the United States economy is in a long-run equilibrium. (a) Draw a correctly labeled long run graph of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and show each of the following for the United States. (i) The current equilibrium output level, labeled Ye, and the current equilibrium price level, labeled PLe.   (b) Suppose that consumer confidence in the United States experiences a significant downturn. In the graph drawn in part (a), show the impact of weakened consumer confidence. In the graph, show any changes to the equilibrium price level and the equilibrium output level. (c) Assume that the central bank of the United States is prepared to take action to reverse the economic impacts shown in part (b). (i) Should the central bank buy or sell bonds in an open market operation? (ii) How does the central bank’s action in part (c)(i) affect the nominal interest rate? Explain. (d) The United States and Mexico are major trading partners. How would the weak consumer confidence in the United States affect the balance of payments current account with Mexico? Explain. (e) Consider the foreign exchange market for the United States dollar. Based only upon your response to part (d), how are each of the following affected? (i) The supply of the United States dollar relative to the Mexican peso. (ii) The value of the dollar relative to the peso. Assume that the United States economy is in a long-run equilibrium. (a) Draw a correctly labeled long run graph of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and show each of the following for the United States. (i) The current equilibrium output level, labeled Ye, and the current equilibrium price level, labeled PLe.   (b) Suppose that consumer confidence in the United States experiences a significant downturn. In the graph drawn in part (a), show the impact of weakened consumer confidence. In the graph, show any changes to the equilibrium price level and the equilibrium output level. (c) Assume that the central bank of the United States is prepared to take action to reverse the economic impacts shown in part (b). (i) Should the central bank buy or sell bonds in an open market operation? (ii) How does the central bank’s action in part (c)(i) affect the nominal interest rate? Explain. (d) The United States and Mexico are major trading partners. How would the weak consumer confidence in the United States affect the balance of payments current account with Mexico? Explain. (e) Consider the foreign exchange market for the United States dollar. Based only upon your response to part (d), how are each of the following affected? (i) The supply of the United States dollar relative to the Mexican peso. (ii) The value of the dollar relative to the peso. 4

The Starting Point AD/AS Model Long-run macroeconomic equilibrium 03/01/17 The Starting Point AD/AS Model Long-run macroeconomic equilibrium A recessionary gap An inflationary gap (a) Every question such as this gives the student a starting point. The student must demonstrate that he/she can understand, and usually graph, the situation that is given. In this case, the economy is in long-run equilibrium. If necessary, the instructor should review the implications of long-run equilibrium in the AD/AS model. The student must be aware that, given this starting point, there is neither an inflationary or a recessionary gap. Equilibrium output is current at full-employment output.   1 point: A correctly labeled graph with the AD, SRAS, and LRAS curves all intersecting. 1 point: The equilibrium output level is shown at LRAS. 1 point: The equilibrium price level is shown at the intersection of AD and SRAS. 5

The Pivotal Event Recession Inflation Expectations change 03/01/17 Recession Inflation Expectations change Wealth change Supply shocks (b) In this part of the problem, consumer confidence has significantly fallen. Students should know the factors that shift AD, SRAS, and LRAS and that weaker consumer confidence causes a decrease in AD. This is a great opportunity for the instructor to review all of these “shifters” in the AD/AS model. 1 point: The graph shows a leftward shift of the AD curve. 1 point: The graph indicates a decrease in both the price level and real GDP.   6

The Initial Effect of the Event 03/01/17 The Initial Effect of the Event The effects of a curve shifting 7

Secondary and Long-Run Effects of the Event 03/01/17 Secondary and Long-Run Effects of the Event Secondary Effects Changes in the price level or real interest rate result in changes in some or all of the following: International Capital Flows Net Exports Investment: domestic and foreign

Secondary and Long-Run Effects of the Event 03/01/17 Secondary and Long-Run Effects of the Event Long-run Effects Government budget "Crowding Out" Capital formation Economic growth (c) The central bank, given the weakened demand shown in part (b), should be pursuing expansionary monetary policy. The instructor should take this time to review the tools of the Fed. In the case of this question, the student is asked to focus on open market operations. To expand the money supply, the central bank should buy bonds. (i) 1 point: Buy bonds   The student who understands monetary policy in the face of a recessionary gap also knows why buying bonds is the correct policy prescription. (ii) 1 point: The nominal interest rate decreases. 1 point: Buying bonds shifts the money supply curve to the right. In the money market, this causes the interest rate to fall. (d) This part of the problem tests the student’s understanding of the balance of payments accounts and how international business cycles begin to affect the international flow of goods and money. 1 point: The current account balance in the U.S. will begin to rise. 9

03/01/17 Playtime! 1) Some estimates show that the Japanese savings rate was about 30% of GNP. Show how increased savings rates might affect the economy. 2) How might an increase in the interest paid by US government bonds affect the macro economy, and it's relationship with the EU? 3) Trump's wall. Enough said. 4) India recently said all large currencies in the economy are now valueless. How might this impact their macroeconomy? (c) The central bank, given the weakened demand shown in part (b), should be pursuing expansionary monetary policy. The instructor should take this time to review the tools of the Fed. In the case of this question, the student is asked to focus on open market operations. To expand the money supply, the central bank should buy bonds. (i) 1 point: Buy bonds   The student who understands monetary policy in the face of a recessionary gap also knows why buying bonds is the correct policy prescription. (ii) 1 point: The nominal interest rate decreases. 1 point: Buying bonds shifts the money supply curve to the right. In the money market, this causes the interest rate to fall. (d) This part of the problem tests the student’s understanding of the balance of payments accounts and how international business cycles begin to affect the international flow of goods and money. 1 point: The current account balance in the U.S. will begin to rise. 10

03/01/17 Playtime! 5) Bill Gates said, “If robots take your job, then the robot's owners should pay taxes equal to the taxes paid by a human employee.” Why might he say that? 6) http://www.dw.com/en/china-cracks-down-on-ant- moving/a-37742232 7) Why might some countries be for or against free trade agreements? 8) What are some necessary steps when moving from an agricultural to an industrial society? (c) The central bank, given the weakened demand shown in part (b), should be pursuing expansionary monetary policy. The instructor should take this time to review the tools of the Fed. In the case of this question, the student is asked to focus on open market operations. To expand the money supply, the central bank should buy bonds. (i) 1 point: Buy bonds   The student who understands monetary policy in the face of a recessionary gap also knows why buying bonds is the correct policy prescription. (ii) 1 point: The nominal interest rate decreases. 1 point: Buying bonds shifts the money supply curve to the right. In the money market, this causes the interest rate to fall. (d) This part of the problem tests the student’s understanding of the balance of payments accounts and how international business cycles begin to affect the international flow of goods and money. 1 point: The current account balance in the U.S. will begin to rise. 11