Realizing the Promise of Activity-based Travel Models in the San Francisco Bay Area Presentation TRB Planning Applications Conference David Ory | dory@mtc.ca.gov.

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Presentation transcript:

Realizing the Promise of Activity-based Travel Models in the San Francisco Bay Area Presentation TRB Planning Applications Conference David Ory | dory@mtc.ca.gov May 2015

Promise Approach Macro Trends Results Recommendations

Promise Approach Macro Trends Results Recommendations

Transferable Less Calibration

Promise Approach Macro Trends Results Recommendations

Calibrated model to 2000 Validated to 2000 & 2005 Realized 2010 Land Use Realized & Coded 2010 Supply Forecasted 2010 Demand

Promise Approach Macro Trends Results Recommendations

Promise Approach Macro Trends Results Recommendations

Easy Validation Statistics

Hard Predicting Trends

Promise Approach Macro Trends Results Recommendations

Make back-casting part of your practice (easy) Calibrate to the Signal (hard) Estimate to the Signal (harder)

<fin>

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