EQ: What shapes public opinion?

Who wore it better

Why is Public Opinion Important? Democratic governments rest on the consent of the governed. -- Hence, major shifts in public opinion should trigger a shift in public policy -- But public opinion is often unstable, weak, ill informed or nonexistent -- So public officials have flexibility in dealing with public issues This attention to public opinion has created an industry in public opinion polling and survey research.

Formation of Public Opinion Family Schools Mass Media Peer Groups Opinion Leaders Historic Events The learning of these beliefs through these groups is called POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION.

Family Basic attitudes toward Authority rules of behavior Property Neighbors People of other races People of other religions MOST important factor!

Schools Good citizenship skills & attitudes Specific knowledge about politics Informal learning about people with different backgrounds.

Mass Media Information about politics & public policy Platform for political leaders. Daily Show Fox news using fake footage (scroll down website to video) Discuss What might be some effects of media behavior like this?

Peer Groups Reinforcement of one’s existing opinions. Do you think peer groups make you more open to new ideas or more closed off to ideas? Why?

Opinion Leaders Laura Ingraham Bill O’Reilly Jesse Jackson Information from which people draw ideas and convictions about politics and public policy. Laura Ingraham Bill O’Reilly Jesse Jackson

Historic Events Information on issues arising out of or related to the events. Example: How did our opinion of the Middle East change after 9/11? Now that gay marriage is legal, do you think it will become more accepted over time, or it will it remain as divisive as abortion?

Opinion Polling

Because How You Ask It Affects How It Is Answered 1. Some people feel the federal government should see to it that all people have adequate housing. Agree 55.1% Disagree 44.5%

Because How You Ask It Affects How It Is Answered 2. Some people feel the federal government should see to it that all people have adequate housing, while others feel each person should provide his own housing. Which comes closest to how you feel about this? Government responsible 44.6% Government not responsible 55.4%

Because How You Ask It Affects How It Is Answered 3. Some people feel each person should provide his own housing, while others feel the federal government should see to it that all people have adequate housing. Which comes closest to how you feel about this? Government responsible 29.5% Government not responsible 70.5%

Survey Research: Framing the Question Do you favor or oppose allowing students and parents to choose a private school to attend at public expense? A proposal has been made that would allow parents to send their school-age children to any public, private or church-related school they choose. For those parents choosing non-public schools, the government would pay all or part of the tuition. Would you favor or oppose this proposal in your state?

Margins of Error* Margin of Error Sample Size +/- 4% 600 +/- 3% 1,200 +/- 4% 600 +/- 3% 1,200 +/- 2% 2,390 +/- 1% 9,425 * For a universe greater than 500,000, 95% of the time

Polls Measure public opinion Brings attention to public questions Attitudes and views of a group of people Brings attention to public questions

Accuracy of the Gallup Poll Do they work??? Accuracy of the Gallup Poll

Types of Polls 1. Scientific Polls (surveying large, random samples) Best way to measure public opinion

2. Straw Polls (informal opinion poll) Highly unreliable Large number of responses Emphasize Quantity over Quality

Hardest thing to measure in a poll is Intensity of the Universe (is the amount of people in the poll) Ex. Now, please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable impression of __________? / Is that a strongly (favorable/unfavorable) opinion or just (a favorable/an unfavorable) opinion? Gallup calculates the Positive Intensity Score as the percentage of those with a strongly favorable opinion of a candidate minus the percentage with strongly unfavorable opinions, among those familiar with the candidate.

If the election were held today, who would you vote for President Bush 48% Kerry 46% Add 3 to both. Bush 51%, Kerry 49%. Subtract 3 from both. Bush 45%, Kerry 43%. Add 3 to Bush, subtract 3 from Kerry Bush 51%, Kerry 43% (B has wide margin) Subtract 3 from Bush, add 3 to Kerry Bush 45%, Kerry 49% (K is now ahead)

How Difficult Is It To Measure Public Opinion When So Many People Lack Political Knowledge? Does the Bill of Rights Prohibit the Official Establishment of Religion in the United States? What are the Three Branches of Government? Name any Power of the National Government. Name one Country that was an enemy of the United States During World War II. 73% 50% 25% 35%

Assignment: You are to conduct your own opinion poll consisting of 3 questions of your choice. Some ideas: (doesn't have to be political) Gay-marriage Gun control Obama’s approval rating Obama care- Health Insurance Reform Dress code Illegal immigration Best Fast food Best phone Cafeteria food/drink

Must print out the findings of your poll (10 points) Poll 20 people that fit your universe/sample criteria. 3 questions @ 20 people each= Do not let them see other people’s answers (very important!!!) (30 points) Have them sign AFTER giving answers. Show demographic data for each person polled. Must use 3 pieces of data (age, grade, gender, religion, political affiliation etc.) (30 points) Graph your demographic data in a pie chart or bar graph. Must do 1 for each data category Report your findings in pie chart or bar graph form (1 for each question ) showing percentages. You will turn in polling sheets and the results. (30 points) You may use an online survey such as surveymonkey.com if you wish. Sample survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/WJB7VYR Must print out the findings of your poll (10 points)