GTAP-AGR Modification occurs in production structure of ag sectors and segregation of factor markets between farm and non-farm uses. Farm production included as an additional nest in standard GTAP Labor and capital are imperfectly mobile to non-ag Considers 1) Doha July 2004 Framework 2) Full liberalization Doha: tiered tariff cuts, AMS reduction, ES elimination Full: Elimination of tariffs, AMS and ES Both experiments consider these changes only for developed countries Note: AMS and ES barely exist in developing countries, water in tariff may make developing MA concerns negligible

Policy Variables Tiered formula using 75% from bound, US required to cut AMS by 28% from current, EU by 16% OECD’s PSE is used to represent government transfers to farm revenue Tariffs are cut using a tiered formula (July 2004 framework) Both required AMS and tariff cuts are calculated based on bound rates Model calculates farm household income change, including change in on-farm and off-farm incomes

The Market Access Dilemma

Four Stimulating Presentations What impacts result from further reforms? Chester and Janine examine the impacts of remaining protection and access barriers by comparing the different liberalization experiments. The Development Round! Anwar and Marcel examine the potential gains that could accrue to developing countries from the July framework Does EU benefit from its protection? Monika and Remi analyze this using scenarios where the EU unilaterally liberalizes. US farm subsidy versus market access! Bob and Anita examine the gains and losses accruing from unilateral liberalization by the US. Is holding on to subsidies worth the failure of the Doha Round?