Sustainability in Energy Efficiency The Energy & Resources Institute INDIA@COP22 Sustainability in Energy Efficiency Karan Mangotra The Energy & Resources Institute Sustainable Lifestyle = Positive Climate Action www.indiaatcop22.org

The Nature of the Climate Change Problem INDIA@COP22 The Nature of the Climate Change Problem Addressing climate change concerns involves choosing higher-cost lower-CO2 emission technologies over lower-cost, higher emission technologies For some applications, especially for energy efficiency, initial cost is higher, but running (energy) costs are lower For some applications, especially for renewables, the long-term cost of electricity is higher Technology evolution is bringing down costs and enhancing performance Addressing climate change is about meeting higher costs (at least in the medium term) and enabling rapid technology evolution. www.indiaatcop22.org

Paris Agreement is a Step Ahead INDIA@COP22 Paris Agreement is a Step Ahead Focuses on a long term goal of limiting global temperature rise to much less than 2 Deg C All countries take action, with developed countries taking lead Countries pledge action and report in a transparent manner Mechanism to enable “ratcheting up” of ambition in subsequent pledges Global technological cooperation – International Solar Alliance and Mission Innovation www.indiaatcop22.org

Total reduction in emissions vs. baseline % Very large variation in INDCs Share in emission reduction by INDC lever category, 2030; Percent Total Renewables, Nuclear, CCS 16 Energy efficiency 7 Total reduction in emissions vs. baseline % 5 48 Fossil fuel shifts Non-energy Note: Center numbers not comparable due to different baseline definitions 5 24 20 Non-specified and other measures 12 29 28 40 45 European Union 28 34 27 United States 10 42 16 9 3 21 Turkey 14 21 58 8 20 13 17 36 37 66 China Mexico Saudi Arabia 79 81 32 India 18 Nigeria 14 Vietnam 31 11 Ethiopia 64 7 27 25 29 53 46 69 8 86 27 32 Brazil 64 13 21 54 South Africa 23 71 Argentina 57 JEREMY Key messages: Large variation in baselines makes relative comparisons difficult but per country can analyze preferred levers Large variation in choice of ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Main levers are zero-carbon energy in the power sector and energy efficiency Little specification of improvements beyond the power sector 7 Note: Current Policies Baseline applied for US, EU and South Africa. Counterfactual emissions applied for China and India. Japan not shown as reductions are in line with current policy trends and a ‘counterfactual baseline’ could not be constructed SOURCE: INDCs and underlying documents of 17 countries (representing ~80% of global emissions in 2012)

India: INDC targets are aggressive and ambitious India’s INDC contains two main targets: Intensity: INDC targets a 33%-35% decrease in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 (compared to 2005). This will be overachieved under current policies. Non-fossil: INDC targets 40% non- fossil power generation capacity target by 2030. This target is in line with current policies. Total emissions (excl. LULUCF) under current policies will more than double from 2010 reaching ~5.4 GtCO2e in 2030 ~80% of this growth is through energy-related emissions Electricity generation will grow at 6% per year.

India: 8 levers are identified in the INDC, of which 6 are also quantified Reduction levers Included in INDC? Specification Energy Non-fossil Wind Wind: 60 GW by 2022 100 GW by 2022 & Nuclear: 63 GW by 2032 Biomass: 10 GW by 2022 Solar Other Energy efficiency Buildings E.g. Energy Conservation Building Code Industry E.g. Perform, Achieve and Trade scheme Transport E.g. Vehicle fuel efficiency standard Fuel shifts Coal to gas Not mentioned in the INDC Transport (NG/ biofuels) 20% blending of biofuels Non energy Specification Not mentioned in the INDC Other Non-core energy Methane Non-CO2 emissions are not mentioned specifically in the INDC. However, various measures related to reducing emissions from waste are included. Nitrogen oxide Other LULUCF1 Aforestation Additional (cumulative) carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. Changed renewables to non-fossil here as nuclear is also included in India’s INDC and target. There’s a lot more detail/information available in the INDC. Reforestation 1 LULUCF: Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

Operationalizing the INDCs INDIA@COP22 Operationalizing the INDCs The Ministry of Power in the process of establishing an operational framework on 3 pillars: Regulatory Interventions Institutional Arrangements (especially for data management) Fiscal & Financial Incentives www.indiaatcop22.org

Generation Capacity has increased… The variable electricity sector… Generation Capacity has increased… …usage of power stations has declined

Challenges for tomorrow Robust - adequate capacity to meet peak demand Agile – quick ramp up and ramp down capability Green - Maximize solar and wind input Minimize cost Flexible – to match variability in demand with variability in supply

Approaches to flexibility Increased ramp up and ramp down capability of coal-based thermal generation Increased availability of gas to enable gas-based plants to act as swing generators Increased share of storage options – pumped storage and batteries Controls – governors and egc Demand-side response measures (DRM) to enable quick turn turndown of demand Regulations to enable: Peak/instantaneous pricing Ancillary services, such as balancing power Demand response measures

Energy Efficiency is Imperative The Air Conditioner Sector in India INDIA@COP22 Energy Efficiency is Imperative The Air Conditioner Sector in India 55% of electricity consumption is due to HVAC 25% of electricity consumption is due to lighting Residential & Commercial Buildings consume 37% of total electricity www.indiaatcop22.org

Key Demand Drivers for Room AC Bulk of Buildings in India are yet to be constructed (around 66% till 2030) as per BEE reports - bulk of the cooling demand would therefore be driven from the room AC segment(both window and split) with an average of 1.35 TR There is an average increase in ambient temperature in India leading to higher temperature differential and hence demand for more cooling. Currently Room ACs account for nearly 60%- 70% of total refrigerant gas market share. This segment along will chillers will increase to a total share of nearly 80% of total refrigerant gas market by 2050.

Innovative Business Models are the need of the hour… Initial cost is higher, especially for energy efficiency, but running (energy) costs are lower For some applications, especially for renewables, the long-term cost of electricity is higher And thus, through business models we can addressing climate change through meeting higher costs (at least in the medium term) and enabling rapid technology evolution.

Thank You Karan Mangotra Fellow The Energy & Resources Institute karan.mangotra@teri.res.in