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Antecedents of High and Lower Child Poverty: An analysis of the county-level factors that precede a shift to high child poverty between 1980 and 2015 Andrew Schaefer, PhD Marybeth J. Mattingly, PhD University of New Hampshire; Carsey School of Public Policy PAPER TITLE; ADD BETH

Background Child poverty related to short- and long-term health, education, employment, and civil consequences Recent attention to children’s community context and the concentration and persistence of child poverty in some places Children in places where poverty has persisted for decades face fewer opportunities and worse outcomes

Past Work on Persistent Child Poverty in U.S. Counties High child poverty (20% or greater) in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2008-2012 ACS Disproportionately concentrated in rural counties Associated with county-level structural factors: family structure, employment, education, race-ethnicity

Research Questions Between 1980 and 2015, what are the patterns in child poverty? Where are the counties that experienced: persistent high child poverty, no child poverty rate above 20%, a shift from lower child poverty to high child poverty, and a shift from high child poverty to lower child poverty? Can changes in demographic characteristics like racial-ethnic composition, family structure, and educational attainment, as well as changes in unemployment and industry composition help explain these patterns?

Data 1980, 1990, and 2000 U.S. Decennial Census 2006-2010 (2010) and 2011-2015 (2015) American Community Survey 5-Year estimates Consistent data for all current U.S. counties

Analytical Plan Official Poverty Measure (OPM) framework Two adults; two children = $24,036 One adult; one child = $19,072 High child poverty = 20% or greater at a given time point Persistent child poverty = High at each time point Lower to high = Lower in 1980; high in 2015 High to lower = High in 1980; lower in 2015 Never high = No instances of high child poverty Mixed = other child poverty pattern.

Source: U.S. Census 1980, 1990, 2000; ACS 2006-2010 and 2011-2015

Smaller increase in median home value and lower median in 2015 Larger increase in child poverty and higher 2015 value Similar racial-ethnic change over time; slightly more diverse in 2015 Less education growth; lower 2015 higher education value Stagnant / lower labor force participation Add Table; then split out the key take aways as line graphs Similar change; potentially higher single-mother family value in 2015 Dramatic decline in manufacturing industry

Logit Regression Model Predicting Transition From Low to High Child Poverty

Nonmetropolitan counties with smallest decline in percent children have highest probability of transition

Nonmetropolitan counties with smallest increase or decline in percent with a college degree or more have highest probability of transition

Nonmetropolitan counties with largest declines in labor force participation have highest probability of transition

Nonmetropolitan counties with largest increase in single-mother families have highest probability of transition

Nonmetropolitan counties with largest manufacturing decline or service increase have highest probability of transition

Summary of Major Findings Similar share of nonmetro and metro counties transitioned from low to high child poverty between 1980 and 2015 (~30 percent) Change over time in various predictors of high child poverty also predicted a transition from low to high child poverty: Age structure Education Family Structure Labor force Participation Industry Decline Surprisingly, racial-ethnic structure change not associated with transition from low to high child poverty

Next Steps Further refinement of transition definitions Analysis of transitions from high to lower poverty (rare) Potentially including state-level characteristics / other county data (e.g. voting data) Comparison of nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties Historical analysis and use of specific counties as case studies Increased attention to logit regression model, especially re: analyzing spatial autocorrelation