Inspired by love, Motivated by passion 2009 Advanced Training Workshop on Southeast Asia Regional Climate Change and Health Issues A presentation of Research Proposal By Group 2 Inspired by love, Motivated by passion

Research Title Climate Types Ecological Epidemiological Vulnerabilities Research Title Linking Climate Types with Ecological and Epidemiological Vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia Linking

CONTENT Grounding the Issue Setting the Objectives Research Framework Research Team Grounding the Issue Setting the Objectives Research Framework Conceptualising the Approach Expected Outcome and Relevance Research Schedule Estimated Budget

Principal Investigators on Sites Northeast Monsoon October-March Research Team Nidi Nagabhatla Nidhi (Cambodia) Landscape Ecology Yi-Chen Wang Hung (Vietnam) Air Pollution Ramzah Dambul Nguyen Tri Quang Hung Srithaya Ridchuayrod Srithaya (Thailand) Water Pollution Ramzah (Malaysia) Synoptic Climatology Southweast Monsoon May-September Yi-Chen (Singapore) Biogeography

Investigating the Linkage Grounding the Issue Precipitation Climatic Elements Human Ecology Social Relationship Temperature Ecology Synoptic Circulation Epidemiology Understanding the Climate Investigating the Linkage Assessing the Impacts Features Distribution Sensitivity Behaviours Patterns Trends Vulnerability Diagnostic Mechanism VULNERABILITY Driving Causes (climate/weather) Symptoms (Ecosystem Health) Planning Climate Change Projection & Prediction

Setting the Objectives To establish the linking relationships between climate types and ecological-epidemiological aspects To assess the established relationships in terms of sensitivity and vulnerability To project future changes (climate types) and predict potential intensification of the impacts (sensitivity and vulnerability)

Research Framework TASKS INPUTS METHOD OUTPUT Level 1: Classifying the climate modes based on synoptic circulation Sea Level Pressure (SLP)  Over the Southeast Asia PCA Correlation Cluster analysis Climate Types Level 2: Relating the Climate Types with ground parameters: - Flood, Fisheries, Acidification, etc Epidemiological and ecological variables  Water quality, fish production, mortality Time-series analysis Correlation, regression Descriptive statistics Spatial analysis Thresholds (sensitivity & vulnerability) Algorithm for modeling Level 3: Projecting future scenarios under the change climate influences Reproducing the Climate Types using GCM (based on various scenarios) Future Climate Types (frequency over time) Level 4: Predicting future sensitivity and vulnerability Spatial analysis (GIS) Sensitivity and vulnerability in the future Level 5: Communicating information and findings to stakeholders (policy-maker, society) Degree of sensitivity Trends, patterns and distributions of vulnerability Probability analysis SWOT analysis Strategic and action plans for mitigation and adaptation

Epidemiological Impacts Conceptualising the Approach Linkage Ecological & Epidemiological Impacts Climate Influences Trends Patterns Distribution Climate Types Ecosystem Health Fisheries Sensitivity Mortality Vulnerability Acidification Flooding

Significance & Relevance Dealing with These Challenges Diagnosed regional vulnerability under different climatic scenarios Improved understanding of local coping mechanisms and adaptive responses Strengthened capacity of stakeholders for strategic and action plans

Climate Change v.s. Health: Established Physical Chemical Biological Bio-Chemical Bio-physical Direct Impacts Temperature CVD, RTD Temperature-Related Disease Vector Expanding Tick-Borne Disease Indirect Impacts Ozone, UV rays, Air Quality Dermatitis Eyes disease; CVD; RTD Pollution Fungus Expanding RTD Water Precipitation Drought Flooding ; nature disaster Food Insufficient Water-borne disease Mental health; Traffic accident Ecological Food safety ; gene mutation Vector expanding vector-borne disease Gene mutation Food Food safety Food insufficient; food safety V From Prof Jenny Su’s slide (Source: American Journal of Public Health 2008)

Research Schedule Total Months Allocated Every Segment Represents 4-month Period (Month 1  36) RESEARCH SPECIFIC TASKS 1-4 5-8 9-12 13-16 17-20 21-24 25-28 29-32 33-36 Grounding the issues (i.e. literature review and establishing the comprehensive framework) 4 Gathering and validating data 8 Classifying the Climate Types Analysing the site-specific data and establishing time-series Investigating the relationship between Climate Types and site-specific ground variables Assessing the sensitivity and vulnerability 16 Establishing various linkage algorithms for various ground variables Simulating future scenarios and predicting the changing sensitivity and vulnerability Outlining strategic plans for mitigation and adaptation actions (workshop, publication)

Estimated Budget (3 Years Project) ITEMS US $ 1 Human resource (wages) 110,000.00 2 Training, workshop, seminar, publication 20,000.00 3 Administration & coordination 4 Traveling & accommodation 5 Purchase of documents, data, equipments 6 Secretariat & stationary items 10,000.00 TOTAL 200,000.00

Common goal and aspiration…. .. brought us all here, together. From the bottom of our hearts, THANK YOU!