The many unknowns of SEE societies’ attitudes towards reforms SEESOX – BoG Conference Achieving sustainable growth in SEE Athens, 2011-02-11 The many unknowns of SEE societies’ attitudes towards reforms Georgy Ganev Centre for liberal strategies, Sofia

Defining the problem and the goal of the talk The task at hand is to think about building support for reforms in SEE The main problem is still defining the problem, devising solutions will come later I will try to peek at what the problem might be by asking specific questions about SEE societies in light of the present crisis SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 1

Q1: is the previous growth episode sustainable/repeatable? If yes, then it will not be easy to convince the SEE public in the need of reform. If not, then this has to be clearly communicated, as painful as the bad news might be. (I firmly believe that the present Prime Minister of Greece is a genuine leader in this respect) SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 2

Q2: If the model has to be modified, which are the important dimensions? Most probably the answers will be country-specific, but there are at least three common things: All SEE countries need better human capital to grow All need more competition in internal markets All need better spending states Framed in this manner, the challenges are all positive and have the potential to generate support. SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 3

Q3: What is the general attitude of the SEE societies towards reforms? Important starting point: we don’t know! More specifically: are they tired or afraid of reforms? These are two very different attitudes. This question is important in terms of practical politics. It is also important in terms of devising policies. It is also important in terms of identification of social groups in favor of reforms. SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 4

Last question: Is the present crisis a good opportunity? The crisis came from outside the region. As a result people may feel it is a matter of waiting for it to pass rather than changing It definitely exposed internal weaknesses, but the SEE publics may need convincing on this Both the losers and the winners from the crisis must be addressed in a positive manner: Resolving issues and offering opportunities for the first Expanding opportunities for the second SEESOX BoG Conference Athens 2011-02-11 Georgy Ganev 5