DISCLOSURE. LDVIC 45.90% vs S&P % (diff %)

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Presentation transcript:

LDVIC 45.90% vs S&P500 30.75% (diff. +15.15%)

DISCLOSURE

Investor Psychology : The best investment analyst is going to be right two out of three times (TEMPLETON)

1) What is Risk?

FREE CASH FLOW

Netflix: MCAP: $140 billion Share: $328 Net debt: ~$3.9 billion Streaming content obligations: ~18 billion EV: ~$140 billion FY 2018: FCF of $3-$4 billion

Free Cash Flow Margin

Free Cash Flow Margin

Key facts: Estimated revenue up 41% for Q2 2018 Average selling price up 12%

Amortization of Content

2015 content was $4.3 billion 2015 Revenue was $6.8 billion

2017 content was $10.4 billion UP 140% 2017 Revenue was $11.7 billion UP 72% -Streaming costs are outpacing revenue growth - Netflix's costs are growing faster than its revenue

Change of Estimate Capitalized Costs need to come off balance sheet

2016 10-K, it states, 'The amortization period typically ranges from six months to five years.‘ Fast forward to its 2017 10-K and it now states, '[...] we amortize the content assets [...] over the shorter of each title's contractual window of availability or estimated period of use or ten years.'

COMPETITORS