The implementation of Carbon Budget Model at EU level Roberto Pilli, Giacomo Grassi, Nuria Guerrero, Giulia Fiorese JRC technical workshop 2014 5-7 May 2014 Arona (Italy)

Since 2010, JRC is working to develop an in-house model capacity to estimate the EU carbon budget at country level for each EU MS After a preliminary analisis of the main models applied at international level, the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) developed by the Canadian Forest Service was selected as potential tool Between 2010 and 2012, the model was applied to a specific case study in order: to test the CBM in different silvicultural systems, proposing a novel approach to model the uneven-aged forest structure to apply the CBM to a European country and estimate the forest C balance of the FM area to explore the impact on the C balance of different scenario assumptions (i.e., harvest rates and disturbance events)

The model was applied to 26 EU countries Considering: FM area ARD Fire & storms HWPs

What is the Carbon Budget Model ? It is an inventory-based, yield-data driven model, that simulates the evolution of the C budget of forests, including the effect of natural and human-induced disturbance events (Kurz et al., 2009) CBM Other data NFI data

What the CBM need … Input by NFI data Area Total Forest area IMPORTANCE Input by NFI data ESSENTIAL REQUESTED USEFUL ADDITIONAL Area Total Forest area By age classes By broadleaves/conifers and by regions By main species and management types ( i.e. coppices/high forests) Growing stock Volume per ha at NUTS 1 level By broadleaves/conifers By main species By age classes, regions and MT Increment Increment per ha at NUTS 1 level By main species and age classes By regions and MT Tot. abovegr. biomass   By main species and regions Natural disturbances Area/biomass affected by natural disturbances Silvicultural treatments By main species and MT Harvest share

CBM C stock by forest pools BY What CBM provides … Main species C stock change Age class evolution BY Main species Regions Silv. systems C stock by forest pools CBM

CBM output: the C stock

CBM output: the C stock change

The age class evolution on even-aged forests CBM output ... The age class evolution on even-aged forests The model’s run simulates the age class evolution from TS 0 to …

CBM output: the tree selection system on an uneven aged high forests

FUTURE & PAST Estimates Effect of Natural disturbances What CBM provides … FUTURE & PAST Estimates Effect of Natural disturbances BY Main species Regions Silv. systems C stock change C stock by forest pools CBM Age class evolution Effect of Harvest

CBM outputs … from the reference NFI year forward C stock change of each pool at country level, accounting for the effect of harvest NFI year

CBM outputs … Comparing results with historical data ! from the reference NFI year backward Comparing results with historical data !

CBM outputs … including effect of natural disurbances

FUTURE & PAST Estimates Effect of Natural disturbances What CBM provides … FUTURE & PAST Estimates Effect of Natural disturbances BY Main species Regions Silv. systems C stock change C stock by forest pools CBM Age class evolution Effect of Harvest Link to HWPs

CBM outputs: detailed accounting of each HWP pool Forest C sink HWP C sink IPCC Tier 2 approach

Thank you