Strategy for an Implementation Framework to set up a European Network of Air Quality Forecasting and Information Systems WG-Env of EUMETNET 01/12/2018

EUMETNET / WG-ENV (history) Objectives: - To improve understanding and co-operation between Members in the environmental area; - To develop proactive co-ordinated relations with the EEA and other environmental organisations. Implementing Activities: Organise exchange of information and know-how between Members related to measurements and forecast in the environmental domain; Recommend practices and propose EUMETNET Programmes that would allow all European citizens to benefit from the best possible meteorological information pertaining to the environment (e.g., ozone forecasting); Maintain liaison with the EEA to serve its meteorological needs, and promote the European NMSs as providers of information and services to EEA and enlist the support of EEA for EUMETNET actions in favour of the environment; Maintain liaison with relevant COST Actions. EUMETNET/EEA MoU signed on 4 September 1998. 01/12/2018

AQ Strategic paper: goals and scope Communication tool and for opening the dialogue with EAs and RCs To guide, streamline and provide clear objectives to WG-ENV activities in AQ forecasting => Positioning with respect to other players. Reference document for EUMETNET Council / NMSs (+ EEA) Scope: General strategy for establishing a comprehensive, coordinated and overarching System of European Air Quality Forecasting and Information Systems. Main principle: a system of systems To be edited as the networking will evolve and activities will concretise. Recent EUMETNET Council tasked the WG-Env to work in close cooperation with existing activities (GEMS,…) in order to develop the strategy and organise the contribution of NMSs and EUMETNET to AQ forecasting. 01/12/2018

Structure of an AQ Forecasting System Physiography NMSs Meteo data AQ products AQ Model(s) AQ forecast Initial chemistry. fields ESA, EUMETSAT, proc.centres Remote sensing products Verification Users AQ observations NEAs, EEA Emission 01/12/2018

AQFIS: Air Quality Forecasting & Information System Acquiring observational data (met+chem); Processing and assimilating data into useful inputs/fields; Forecasting the evolution of emission of pollutants and the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere; Post-processing and assessing models’ outputs; Exchanging, disseminating, and archiving shared data, metadata, and products; Monitoring the performance against the defined requirements and intended benefits for (mainly) users. 01/12/2018

Air Quality Forecasting: some specific challenges Large variety of input data (meteorology, emission, monitoring data, etc.) with strongly varying quality, origins, and real-time availability; Wide range of scales to be covered (from at least continental down to urban and street-level) : “vertical” hierarchy of models; Existing AQ forecasts show inhomogeneous results with considerable uncertainties of output products reliability of deterministic AQ models is lower than that of NWP while the cost of computations is at least as high => multi-model ensemble built from (all) available AQ forecasts is all but inevitable to improve credibility of results: “horizontal” modelling ensemble to-date, there are no existing modelling ensembles with reasonable representativeness (GEMS plan: 10 models from 9 countries - fig) Requires broad range of expertise and capacities: expertise in real-time forecasting expertise in monitoring the AQ (satellite and in-situ) expertise in data assimilation major computing power … Split of responsibility and expertise with respect to: input data, obligations towards end-users, technical capacity, NWP/AQ forecasting, etc, are distributed between many different players at European, national and regional/municipality levels 01/12/2018

AQFIS: A patchwork of players EU Legislation: (i) Inform the public on AQ, (ii) Assess concentrations when no monitoring data, (iii) Forecast potential exceedances, (iv) Assess possible emergency measures to abate exceedances using modelling tools. NMSs: Have part of required infra to build upon: met- + (AQ-) data, operational met-forecast system; Know-how for handling large datasets/operating complex models/assimilation schemes (+ observations handling and QC), other types of data (satellite, remote sensing), AQ modelling system. NEAs/REAs: AQ data, AQ modelling & forecasting, AQ management, dissemination of information. EEA/EIONET: coordination, AQ data exchange, compilation >> real-time + EEA/AirBase: Central database (not real-time). EEA: statutory and organisational basis (but principally connected to NEAs). GEMS (EU/GMES: coordinated by ECMWF): develop operational capabilities for medium and short-range meteorological and air-chemistry forecasts. PROMOTE (ESA/GMES): deliver policy-relevant operational services to end-users, primarily using Earth Observation sources. Other projects: SAFs, PAFs, City-delta, COSTs, Air4EU……... 01/12/2018

Goal Towards a European-wide “system of systems”, bringing together at least all mandatory players in the field and allowing for near-real-time (NRT) interactions and data flows, finally leading to an operational AQ forecasting network. 01/12/2018

Tasks Identify barriers against such a network => create a working playground Develop the infrastructural, scientific and communication bases for an effective integration, use and dissemination of results from existing systems producing AQ forecasts and information (i.e. establishing, enabling or streamlining missing synapses/links): Data access and standards Data exchange (met + chem data + others) Interoperability Multi-model approach Probability forecasting Model verification Multi-scale: link to global and downscaling towards the local scales Emission scenarios From regional to urban/local scale forecasts. => Requires enhanced and structured dialogue, collaboration and complementarities between the actors involved in the production and use of AQFIS in Europe. 01/12/2018

Strategic Plan towards an ENAQFIS Existing activities: GEMS, PROMOTE, EIONET,…: development and evaluation of the real-time AQ products, forecasting experience, methodologies and tools strong and focused efforts building the blocks of the system but, limited number of partners, sometimes limited time frame (project) Needs: a complementary forum that promotes the contacts and discussion between all players in the area, first of all, NEAs and NMSs, as well as EEA, EUMETNET, etc. supports the above focused activities, and helps to shape-up the network A possibility: COST-AQFIS Action to specify the envisaged system: formalise dialogue, assess situation and needs, lay the coordination basis for data exchange/access (standards, architecture, etc..). Why COST? Suitably neutral to involve all actors, + flexible forum able to lever other needed activities Comparatively weak and not well-structured but it may serve as a good complementary activity for focused actions and projects Status: the action proposal has been submitted to COST TC, got generally positive feedback and a list of comments, to be taken into account by the next TC meeting in March 2006 (proposal re-evaluation is then expected) In parallel, complement GEMS and PROMOTE results with specific aspects and issues through relevant FP7-project(s) (STREP, IP or Research Infrastructure) + GEMS follow-up (fast-track, pilot services) + EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facilities (SAFs) + (ECMWF Prediction Application Facilities PAFs). 01/12/2018

Interrelationships between the various actors for the preparation and development of the ENAQFIS ECMWF NMSs EEA NEAs WG-ENV Joint Network Steering Committee GEMS COST-AQFIS EIONET PROMOTE Eumetnet Program EU-Project Other relevant Projects (GEMS-Sustainability) (GMES pilot service / atmosphere) 01/12/2018

Main groups of topics to be covered WG1: Input Data and data exchange Combining near real-time AQ observations and forecasts into one system. Required frequency of exchange. Data format and compatibility. Interoperability aspects. Data archiving (where, by whom?) Station coverage: Criteria for selecting stations, by whom? Accessibility and validation of satellite data. Provisions for quality checks (by whom?). WG2: AQ Forecasting, multi-model approach, boundary data QA/QC issues: operational (quality scores), output parameters and criteria. Ensemble forecast: ways to define ensemble, prioritizing, multi-model concept. Statistical corrections, data assimilation, etc. Emission scenarios (short term abatement, strategies). WG3: Visualisation & Dissemination What information is required for display: separate pollutants and/or an index. Harmonised scheme for display. Level of detail of maps for presentations. Which media (internet, TV, SMS). Display for specific groups (children). Links and interactions with other activities and organizations. Inventory of systems. Which activities require coordination (to avoid duplication) or cooperation (to enhance synergies). Elaborated following the Copenhagen workshop recommendations and presented to COST Technical Committee (Sept 2005). 01/12/2018

Participants of COST-ENAQFIS From each country: one met-service delegate to Management Committee (MC) one environmental agency (or other AQ forecast provider) delegate to MC more than one delegate per country can participate in the working groups EEA Key on-going European activities in the field GEMS PROMOTE 01/12/2018

Thank you for your attention ! 01/12/2018