Southern Company Summer 2018 Outlook & Winter Review

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Presentation transcript:

Southern Company Summer 2018 Outlook & Winter 2017-18 Review Presented by Climate Impact Company April 6, 2018

Climate Impact Company/Southern Company Summer 2018 Outlook & Winter 2017-18 Review La Nina fades, neutral ENSO follows. Warming North Atlantic basin key contributor to forecast Near normal summer temperature (however, expect volatility). Georgia drought erodes. Tropics: Normally busy, nothing like last year. Winter 2017-18 Review La Nina was weak, enable other climate factors to dominate. Stratospheric warming in the arctic region triggered January harsh cold. Pacific Madden Julian oscillation event pushed a record warm February. Overall forecast (mild/dry) verified but it was choppy getting there.

Climate Impact Co. Summer 2018 Outlook Southeast is normally warm, heat West Georgia could be dry, Northeast wet

Southern Company System Summer Forecast Temperature: SLIGHTLY above normal, changeable Precipitation: July driest, August wettest

Tropical Cyclone Season 2018 Near normal activity, most hurricanes stay at sea NEUTRAL ENSO favors near normal activity

Lead Predictors for Summer 2018 Forecast Dynamic/statistical models agree on neutral ENSO If Georgia drought persists (fades) hotter (cooler). Low confidence part of forecast.

The Ocean Forecast… Now: La Nina hanging in there Summer: Warming northern oceans, La Nina gone (Atlantic tropics near normal)

U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018 May temperature May precipitation

U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018 June temperature June precipitation

U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018 July temperature July precipitation

U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018 August temperature August precipitation

U.S. Monthly Forecasts May-September 2018 September temperature September precipitation

Summer 2018 Alabama/Georgia CDD Forecast

Southern Company Extreme Heat Outlook #Days > 90F #Days > 95F

Summer 2017 Forecast/Verification Temperature forecast Temperature verification

Summer 2017 Forecast/Verification Precipitation forecast Precipitation verification

Winter 2017-18 Forecast Verification Temperature forecast Observed temperature

Winter 2017-18 Forecast Verification Precipitation forecast Observed precipitation

Winter 2017-18 State Rankings Southern Company: Marginally warm Southern Company: Marginally dry

Southern Company System Observed Winter 2017-18 Temperature NOV-17 to MAR-18 Precipitation NOV-17 to MAR-18

Southern Company Forecast Verification Winter 2017-18 Temperature Verification NOV-17 to MAR-18 Precipitation Verification NOV-17 to MAR-18

Winter 2017-18 Cold Peak Early January Was Coldest Week of Winter 3rd Week of January Also Very Cold as Snowpack Extended to Gulf Coast

Record Warm February February 18-24 was record warm The month of February was record warm in Southeast

Winter 2017-18 Gas Population Weight HDD Alabama Georgia

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