Decision Support System’s Crime in St. Louis Study

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Presentation transcript:

Decision Support System’s Crime in St. Louis Study By: Group D Brian Howard Dhiraj Kumar Katie Vogel Tim Stahlman

Objective To predict where crime will occur in the city of St. Louis Specifically homicides We are to predict the location and number of unlawful homicides where there is intent to kill in St. Louis City for 2011

Project Process Collect the data Analyze (Data Mining) Formulate the problem. Accumulate data. Transform and select data. Train models. Evaluate models. Deploy models. Monitor results. Present the result

Current Statistics for the City of St. Louis - July 2009 According to City-data.com: St. Louis’s population is 356,587 There are 5,758 people per square mile 68,917 county owner-occupied houses and condos 78,159 renter-occupied apartments

Map of St. Louis By District: Homicides

Map of St. Louis By District: Related Crime

Sample Data By Neighborhood Source: http://slmpd.org/crime_stats.html

Crime Statistics 2010 District Total Murder District – 1 10 4 District – 3 District – 4 9 District – 5 30 District – 6 39 District – 7 21 District – 8 14 District – 9 7 Unknown TOTAL 144

Crime Statistics 2009 District Total Murder District – 1 9 13 District – 4 District – 5 25 District – 6 27 District – 7 29 District – 8 17 District – 9 8 Unknown TOTAL 143

Relationship Between Neighborhood and Total Crime

Model A Variables X1: Year 2007 X2: Year 2008 X3: Year 2009

Formula Y = -0.13(x1)+0.175(x2)+.0661(x3)+.869(x4 ) – 19.909

Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.98574112 R Square 0.97168555 Adjusted R Square 0.970337248 Standard Error 60.5350068 No. of Observations 89

Crime Data

Crime By Neighborhood

Forecast

Summary of Results There is a direct correlation between the neighborhood location and the homicide rate Neighborhoods within wards 5, 6 and 7 contain the worst homicide rates These areas are close to Interstate 70

References V.L. Sauter, Decision Support Systems For Business Intelligence, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2011. Analytics X. N.p., 2011. Web. 1 Mar. 2011. <http://www.analyticsx.com/rulesfaq.html>. "Crime Statistics." Metropolitan Police Department. N.p., 2011. Web. 1 Mar. 2011. <http://slmpd.org/crime_stats.html>. Tonya, Balan: Understanding Analytix, SASCom Magazine, Jan, 2010 Sauter, Vicki L. Decision Support Systems for Business Intelligence. Ed. Vicki L. Sauter. University of Missouri - St. Louis, 15 Jan. 2011. Web. 1 Mar. 2011. <http://www.umsl.edu/~sauterv/DSS/6833start.html>.

Questions