Fiscal Impact Analysis – Measuring the Impacts of Growth June 9, 2011 Presentation to the Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Introductions – Me No Good Deed Goes Unpunished – Loudoun County Victims of Our Own Success June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

What is Fiscal Impact Analysis ? – In this case, it is the attempt to estimate the financial implications, over time, of an individual or series of actions relating to the use of land June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

What types of projects trigger an analysis: – Major Economic Development project – Land Use change Rezoning for PUD Transportation Corridor Plan Area Plan General Plan Revision or Amendment – TIFF or Special Tax District Proposal – Community Development Authority – Major Infrastructure Project – Sports/Cultural Facilities June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Review or Commission? – We commission (or in house) studies for new patterns or types General Plan Revision Area Plan Revisions Corridor Plan Studies New Types – Lansdowne PUD and Hotel Complex – High Density Transit Oriented Development – WorldComm – high density – Dulles Rail – We review private sector initiated studies for Special Districts Community Development Authorities Major Rezonings Major Comprehensive Plan Amendments June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

What are we measuring? – Across all Governmental Funds and the School Fund – Over Time 20 Years 30 Years Buildout Revenues Expenditures Capital Facility Needs Capital Costs Debt Service Water/Wastewater/Municipal Solid Waste Impacts June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

What are the Formats of the Analysis? – Average Cost – Marginal Cost – Multivariate June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Which Type is Appropriate? – Marginal Cost works best for static communities – Average Cost better for growing communities – Multivariate best for large/long-range analysis, but there are drawbacks June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

What Drives the Analysis? – Business/Development Plan – Quantifiable Units People School Age Children Other Specific Demographic Subgroups Households Housing Units (SFD/SFA/MF) Non-residential square footage by type Employees Hotel Rooms Developed/Undeveloped Acreage June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Applied Against? – Programmatic and Revenue Data from Schedule 1 (other funds as necessary) Rolls up into larger categories Demand or Source Allocation % from Residential / % from Commercial June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Demographic Modules People per Housing Unit and Type School Age Children Per Unit and Type Occupancy Rate/Unit Type Square Foot per Employee by Type June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Revenue Module Real Property – Residential Development » Basic Housing Type (SFD/SFA/MF) » SFD acreage delineation (1/4 acre, ½ acre, acre…) » MF Condominium vs. Rental » Senior Housing » Affordable Units » Other Residential components Executive Housing Elevator Apartments/condos workforce housing Golf Course homes June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Revenue Module Real Property - continued – Undeveloped Land » Initial State » Impact of Regulatory Change (Rezoning/Permits/Utilties/Roads) » Acreage driven and declines over development horizon – Commercial Development » Development Type (Office/Flex/Industrial/Other) » Hotels by Room – Assessed Value Assumptions June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Revenue Module Personal Property – Residential usually based on Per Housing Unit basis – Business usually based on per employee or sq. ft. Sales Tax – Per HH and Per Employee Others – Per HH and Per Employee June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Revenue Module Revenue related to Construction – Permits Fees, and BPOL – Related to sq. ft. or assessed value State Aid for Education – Per Child Hotel/Motel Per Room June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Expenditure Module Average Cost Allocated by generator: Residential/Commercial) Per Person and Per Employee Components Education Cost Per Child June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Capital Flows General Government (including Schools) Facility Drivers – Capital Standards (CIP/Existing) – Population/Child/Employee based – Trigger Basis (100%, 80%,?) Facility Costs Proffers Other Revenues/Cash Debt Service Transportation, Solid Waste and Water/Wastewater – Facility Drivers » Standards » Population/Households/Vehicle Trips » Trigger Basis June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Usual Components - Summary Module Annual or Five-year Summaries Totals, all years Buildout June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Key Concepts and Issues – Base Year Conditions Fund Balance Service Delivery Change State Aid/ARRA – Overall Inflation / Property Appreciation / Expenditure Inflators – Proffers and Construction Inflation – Net Development Versus Gross Rearranging the Deck Chairs June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Key Concepts and Issues – Scope of Analysis Project Area County-wide – Aggressive Development Schedules – Fronting the $ June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Key Concepts and Issues – Scenarios Base Case – Should be current zoned/planned use of land with reasonable assumptions – What is the regional/local demand for product types? – Are there regionally agreed upon forecasts? – Weldon Cooper Developed Scenario(s) – Same Demand Questions Summary of Net Differences Reminder: You are not providing answers, merely ranges of possibilities June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Key Concepts and Issues – Induced Commercial/Retail Development – Breakeven – Multipliers June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Best Practice Recommendations Loudoun Experience – Public/Public/Public Open covenants of peace, openly arrived at, after which there shall be no private international understandings of any kind but diplomacy shall proceed always frankly and in the public view 14 Points, Woodrow Wilson Inter-Departmental Advisory Group – Finance/Budget/Planning/Zoning/Economic Development/Administration and as much help as possible from Schools/Utilities and Transportation If possible, get a formal public advisory board – Get a financially concerned Board/Council member involved if possible – Diverse advisory panel » At least 40% local development community (HB 3202) – Avoid Black Box models June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Best Practice Recommendations Loudoun Experience – Adopt demographic and capital standards Triennial Census Data American Community Survey Weldon Cooper Capital Standards (Start with CIP) – Know your CAFR and Budget Know why and how mergers, realignments and department changes happened Interview your Line Departments about service demand – Know your demographics – Call your neighbors June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association

Questions? Benjamin Mays Deputy CFO Management and Financial Services Loudoun County, Virginia 1 Harrison Street, NE Leesburg, VA / June 9, 2011 Presentation to Virginia Government Finance Officers Association