China Roars! Tom Peters/01.01.2004

“China has become a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world in low-end labor-intensive goods—and the rest of the world is becoming a manufacturing hub for China in high-end, capital-intensive goods. … China may be a threat to certain parts of the global supply chain that rely on low-cost labor, but it represents an even greater opportunity via production-efficiency gains, economic welfare gains and long-term dynamic potential. Its booming exports are more than matched by booming industrial imports and foreign investment opportunities. It has become the new engine of global growth.” Source: Glen Hodgson & Mark Worrall/Export Development Canada, in “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3 1990-2003: Exports 8X ($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of Total Global Growth in 2002. Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

1998-2003: 45,000,000 layoffs in state sector; offset by $450B in foreign investment; foreign companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico, 15% in Korea. Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned firms; 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private employ. Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

Population growth = 1%; two-thirds of housing privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home (vs. 61% in Japan) Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

200 cities with >1,000,000 population 200 cities with >1,000,000 population. Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

200,000,000 unemployed; must create 20,000,000 jobs per year to offset layoffs; 400,000,000 elderly Chinese by 2030 (currently no pension funds). Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

397,000,000 fixed phone lines = 90X since 1989 397,000,000 fixed phone lines = 90X since 1989. Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

2003: China-Hong Kong leading producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%: DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs, PDAs, car stereos). Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

“When the Chinese Consumer Is King: America’s mass market is second to none. Someday it will just be second.” —Headline, New York Times/12.14.2003

World economic output: U. S. A World economic output: U.S.A., 21%; EU, 16%; China, 13% (2X since1991) Source: New York Times/12.14.2003

“America, like everyone else, must get used to being a loser as well as a gainer in the global economy. In the end, the 21st century is unlikely to be the American Century.” —”When the Chinese Consumer Is King”/New York Times/12.14.2003. “The notion that God intended Americans to be permanently wealthier than the rest of the world, that gets less and less likely as time goes on.” —Robert Solow, Nobel laureate in economics/New York Times/12.14.2003