The Cook Islands limited experience applying impacts assessment methodologies Pasha Carruthers Research Officer PICCAP Program, Environment Service June 2001 This

Cook Islands Experience Methods applied limited mainly to analogues, expert judgment,brainstorming Not Tested Why so limited? Relevance to scale Capacity and Technology Poor understanding of other methods Future impact assessment methods?

Cook Islands Island micro-state Latitude 9-22°S Longitude 157-166°W limited land size (240 sq km) small population size (16,000?) limited natural resources external economic and physical impacts important geographic diversity with both high and low islands

Socio-economic elements Tourism Pearls Commercial and Subsistence Seafood Coastal Flood Plain Agriculture The coastal zone provides a wealth of beauty and is an essential element in the development of tourism for the Cook Islands. Although we do not have many Japanese or asian tourists, the sector is booming. Tourism has increased by 30% for the past 2 years, representing around 40 percent of GDP. New hotels and motels along the coast are constantly being built, but there is now talk about halting further growth in this sector because the island cannnot cope with the influx. The pearl culture industry is the second most important economic sector, although only two atoll islands (manihiki and penryhn) participate. Development of the black pearl industry complements the older mother of pearl shell exports. Pearl health is highly dependent on lagoon salinity, temperature, and currents Coastal and pelagic fisheriesare important to the hospitality/restaurant tourism as well as subsistence. Ciguatera fish poisoninig, believed to stem from poor reef health is a concern Agriculture in the coastal floodplains produces pawpaws and mangoes for export. Formerly large banana and pinapple industries have halted because of competition from South America and climate factors, erosion, cyclone damage

Activities Signatory to UNFCCC 1992 needed to produce “The Initial National Communication” PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme: 1997 Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional Environment Programme) Assist countries to meet their obligations under the Convention Provides technical assistance, training, capacity building Funding of Co-ordinators and in-country activities Country Team Approach V&A Course Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario generation - PACCLIM Instead focus on: expanding the V&A statement to enhance full representation of the country qualitative baselines public awareness

Cook Islands Exposure Sectors As Identified by Country Team Matrices Agriculture: crop yields, harvest times, crop viablity, land loss Coastal: shoreline erosion and landloss Health: increased vector borne diseases, disaster risk, skin sepsis Water resources: saltwater intrusion, physical damage to infrastructure, drought

12/2/2018

Field Research Challenges Focal point established Overview of the island Meetings with government officials, community leaders Informal discussions School and Media Presentations Qualitative observations including anecdotal evidence Trust Limited time Presenting complex material Getting relevant input Recording feedback Verifying anecdotes Quantifying observations and uncertainties

Models and Decisions IAM still more theory than practice MAGICC, IMAGE & others have benefits but time consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations In truth demonstration tool produced at great expense has had limited applicability not simple, too many errors, closed programs useful application at the decision maker level requires a motivator and a greater level of completeness. Better as a training tool, for identifying cross sectoral considerations

PACCLIM Outputs

Future Directions Open Structure Models, focused data collection Access to national and international technical expertise Improve results obtained from simple methods, interview skills, checklists Reporting Important Risk Management and coping ability Integrated management plans Implementation through policy, National Implementation Strategy Public & Education Awareness Continued lobbying for mitigation and adaptation assistance

Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments Global Regional Level 1 GEF UNDP APN SPREP PICCAP Geography Community Environmental Health Baseline Data Available Resilience Economic Cost of Climate Change Suitable Adaptation Options Local Decision Makers Tradition Public Awareness of Climate Issues Sustainability Research Capacity Island Councils Country Team PICCAP Project Environment Service Government Level 2 Level 3 Country Specific Island Specific Models Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments SURVAS National Communications