The Paradox of the 99-foot Man

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Presentation transcript:

The Paradox of the 99-foot Man Confirmation The Paradox of the 99-foot Man

The Raven Paradox A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens. The hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are black. If (1) and (2), then a red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black. [So] A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.

The First Premise A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens. Nicod’s Criterion (a): A generalization is confirmed (to some degree) by an F that is G.

Confirmation Total Evidence Constraint: Evidence E only confirms (or disconfirms) hypothesis H relative to some background knowledge K. The Bayesian Confirmation Principle: Evidence E confirms hypothesis H relative to background knowledge K iff P(H/E&K) > P(not-H/E&K).