Shifting Ground: changing attitudes to immigration Bobby Duffy, Ipsos MORI Senior Visiting Research Fellow, King’s College London

Our study… Remarkable stability in many immigration attitudes… But at aggregate level: very little research on individual change “Net” stability hides “gross” change; who’s changing? 7 wave online longitudinal study, from Feb 2015 to Oct 2016 Started with 4,500, topped up at successive waves

1. People have become MORE positive about immigration in the last couple of years…

Pretty big positive shift in attitudes… On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on Britain? (0 is “very negative”, 10 is “very positive”) 2015 General Election 2015 Refugee Crisis EU Referendum Negative (0-4) Positive (6-10) Mirrored in other studies… Base: 1,301 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between February 2015 and October 2016

Reflected in individual-level change… On a scale of 0 to 10, has migration had a positive or negative impact on the local area where you live? (0-4 “Negative”, 5 “Neutral”, 6-10 “Positive”) February 2015 October 2016 Positive (35%) Positive (46%) Neutral (20%) Neutral (20%) Negative (46%) Negative (34%) Base: 1,256 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the February 2015 and October 2016

2. …BUT people still want immigration reduced

Six in ten still want immigration numbers reduced… Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot? Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

And much less individual level change… Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or reduced a lot? April 2016 October 2016 Increased 9% Increased 7% Remain the same 25% Remain the same 29% Reduced 65% Reduced 64% Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between 14-25 April 2016 and 13-20 October 2016

3. …of course, people are often very wrong on scale of immigration…

13% 25% 14% 33% WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS (I.E. NOT BORN IN THIS COUNTRY?) Actual… Guess… 13% 25% 14% 33%

Emotional innumeracy… We overestimate what we worry about as much as worrying about what we overestimate Vital implication: Misdiagnoses issue: myth-busting will have limited impact emotional reactions require emotional responses… Advantage for negative information – and low trust environment

4. There are cultural and economic drivers of immigration concern…

Explaining Nativist/Anti-immigration views Nostalgic for Britain’s past 11% Think Britain will be in strong position to negotiate trade post-Brexit 9% 12% Opposed to political correctness and suspicious of human rights 9% Strong sense of authoritarianism Nativist/Anti- immigration sentiment 5% Do not trust experts 17% Does not value diversity 5% Belief that that system does not work for them personally 3% Explaining Brexit: Nativist/Anti-immigration views most associated with Leave vote, similar mix of other factors Strong belief individuals should look after themselves Base: 2,765 GB adults +16 completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

5. But different people have different drivers of views…

The different population segments 28% Anti-immigration group Concerned about immigrants taking away welfare services and jobs. Nostalgic for the past. Least likely to mix with people from different backgrounds; don’t value diversity. Low levels of trust in others and experts. Strong authoritarian views. Older, lower levels of education. social renters. Highest support for UKIP. Voted heavily to Leave Most negative about immigration 23% Mid group – comfortably off but culturally concerned Optimistic about their future, income inequality acceptable. Highest levels of trust in others, open to diversity, second least nostalgic group. Don’t feel personally threated by immigration. Oldest group, retired,, most likely to own house outright. Highest support for Tories. Split on EU ref vote 25% Mid group – under pressure Second highest group to think other people get priority over them for public services and immigrants get priority over jobs. Second least emphatic group about diversity. Youngest age group, highest no. of part time workers. Biggest concern issue facing Britain is the economy. Politically disparate and highest group of undecided voters. 24% Open to immigration Majority think immigration levels should stay same. Trust others and experts. Value diversity and human rights, want a fairer more equal society but. Believe they will be worse off than parents’ generation. Well educated, highest group of private renters. Highest group of Labour supporters. Mostly voted Remain. Most positive about immigration

6. Those who are most “open to immigration” are most stable in their views… … all other groups, including anti-immigration group, shifted much more

7. Cultural/economic interaction important to understand emergent political fault-lines… Interlock Conservative/Labour with Leave/Remain Three types of issue: 1. Leave/Remain dominant 2. Conservative/Labour dominant 3. Interaction between two

+ Immigration, distrust of experts Group 1. Leave voters more likely to think Britain was better in the past To what extent, do you agree or disagree…things in Britain were better in the past? + Immigration, distrust of experts Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

Group 2. Labour supporters are more likely to think economy rigged To what extent to you agree or disagree… the British economy is rigged towards the rich and powerful + difficult to get ahead, austerity impact Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

Group 3. Gradient on type of society want… Which of the following statements comes closest to your ideal? + political correctness, death penalty, gay marriage Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016

More change than realise from simple surveys… …but not on some key measures, and not only in middle… …Brexit revealing rather than creating differences? …misperceptions a result as much as cause of concern Underlying culture/values/emotions key?

Thank you Bobby Duffy Bobby.duffy@ipsos.com @BobbyIpsosMORI