CAPS Real-time Storm-Scale EnKF Data Assimilation and Forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments: Towards the Goal.

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Presentation transcript:

CAPS Real-time Storm-Scale EnKF Data Assimilation and Forecasts for the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments: Towards the Goal of Operational Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation for Convection-Permitting Models Presented by Youngsun Jung Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms Rong Kong, Chengsi, Liu, Jingyao Luo, Ming Xue, Gang Zhao Acknowledgement: real-time HWT team May 7, 2018 youngsun.jung@ou.edu

Real-time DA and NWP CAPS/OU has been producing 3-km (previously 4-km) CONUS-domain ensemble forecasts for evaluation at NOAA HWT since 2007 and HMT since 2017. Goals: To determine the optimal design, configurations, and post- processing of storm-scale ensemble prediction, and to provide the products for evaluation by forecasters and researchers, and test storm- scale data assimilation methods. Part of the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE) since 2017. A distinct feature of the CAPS SSEFs: the assimilation of full-volume radial velocity and reflectivity data from the WSR-88D network. To gain understanding to optimize and further calibrate a short-term probabilistic forecast system to support WoF

2017 HWT Model and Configuration Forecast model: WRF-ARW v3.8.1 (2017) DA systems: CAPS 3DVAR/cloud analysis, GSI-EnKF, CAPS EnKF 3-km horizontal grid spacing, 51 vertical levels http://www.caps.ou.edu/~fkong/sub_atm/spring17-enkf.html Verification domain Forecast domain (1160 X 1120)

Computing Resource (EnKF Ensemble) PSC Bridges (21,056 cores) Two Intel Haswell (E5-2695 v3) 14-core CPUs, 2.3-3.3 GHz CAPS HWT Spring Experiment Using 205 nodes (205*28 = 5740 cores) Data archive: ~ 1 TB/day (not all data is archived) Performance statistics: 26 April 2018 case Conventional observation assimilation: < 3 minutes Radar data assimilation: ~ 5 min (20x56 = 1120 cores) radar reflectivity: ~ 1 millions radial velocity: ~ 60 K (from 139 sites)

Configuration for the EnKF Ensemble Forecasts

Neighborhood ETS of 1-hour rainfall (R=15km) a) ≥ 1.27 mm b) ≥ 6.35 mm Experiment (number of cases): 3DVar_2016 (18), EnKF_2016 (16), 3DVar_2017 (22), EnKF_2017 (21)

ETSs of 1-hour rainfall accumulations b) ≥ 0.25 in Green: Thompson (m1: 23, m5: 23, m9: 20 days) Black: 3DVAR (22 days) Cyan: MY (m3: 16, m6: 16, m7: 18 days) Brown: noRadar (11 days) Orange: Morrison (m2: 22, m4: 23 days) Blue: PM (23 days) Purple: NSSL (m8: 20, m10: 20 days)

14 day averaged Composite Reflectivity Power Spectra (dBZ2) a) 0015 UTC b) 0100 UTC 6∆x 6∆x

0000 UTC MRMS Cloud-analysis EnKF 5/17/2017 5/26/2017 5/29/2017 5/30/2017

0006 UTC MRMS Cloud-analysis EnKF 5/17/2017 5/26/2017 5/29/2017 5/30/2017

0012 UTC MRMS Cloud-analysis EnKF 5/17/2017 5/26/2017 5/29/2017 5/30/2017

0030 UTC MRMS Cloud-analysis EnKF 5/17/2017 5/26/2017 5/29/2017 5/30/2017

0100 UTC MRMS Cloud-analysis EnKF 5/17/2017 5/26/2017 5/29/2017 5/30/2017

Mixing Ratio Power Spectra 0000 UTC Graupel mixing ratio (k=25) Rain mixing ratio (k=2) 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 Power (kg2/kg2) 103 102 101 L (km) 103 102 101 L (km)

Mixing Ratio Power Spectra 0006 UTC Graupel mixing ratio (k=25) Rain mixing ratio (k=2) 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 Power (kg2/kg2) 103 102 101 L (km) 103 102 101 L (km)

Mixing Ratio Power Spectra 0012 UTC Graupel mixing ratio (k=25) Rain mixing ratio (k=2) 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 Power (kg2/kg2) 103 102 101 L (km) 103 102 101 L (km)

Mixing Ratio Power Spectra 0018 UTC Graupel mixing ratio (k=25) Rain mixing ratio (k=2) 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 Power (kg2/kg2) 103 102 101 L (km) 103 102 101 L (km)

Mixing Ratio Power Spectra 0030 UTC Graupel mixing ratio (k=25) Rain mixing ratio (k=2) 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 Power (kg2/kg2) 103 102 101 L (km) 103 102 101 L (km)

Mixing Ratio Power Spectra 0100 UTC Graupel mixing ratio (k=25) Rain mixing ratio (k=2) 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 Power (kg2/kg2) 103 102 101 L (km) 103 102 101 L (km)

Power Spectra (3-hr rainfall) 00-03 UTC 21-00 UTC 3-hour accumulated rainfall (mm) averaged over 18 days. The inner box shows the spectral domain.

Summary of Real-time EnKF DA A convective-scale EnKF DA system that assimilates full volume radar data has been developed and is running in real-time. The precipitation forecasts show large sensitivity to the choice of microphysics schemes. The EnKF forecasts are able to maintain the storm structure throughout the first forecast hour, suggesting that the EnKF analysis is well balanced. Optimization of EnKF-En3DVar hybrid DA system for real-time applications is underway.

GSI-based 3DVar, EnKF, EnVar, and En3DVar Hybrid System Optimization of the 3-km-grid-spacing EnKF- En3DVAR hybrid DA system for radar DA EnKF: Thompson 3DVar, EnVar, EnKF-En3DVar hybrid: LFO (1983) Special treatments to improve analysis and convergence rate are developed. Limited by parallel efficiency and memory requirement

GSI EnKF Radar DA (Z+Vr) Cycle1 (23:00) observation Forecast Analysis Jingyao Luo

GSI EnKF Radar DA (Z+Vr) Cycle3 (23:30) observation Forecast Analysis Jingyao Luo

GSI EnKF Radar DA (Z+Vr) Cycle5 (00:00) observation Forecast Analysis Jingyao Luo

GSI EnVar Radar DA (Z+Vr) Cycle3 (23:30) observation Forecast Analysis Rong Kong

GSI 3DVAR, EnKF, En3DVar hybrid Assimilation of Z: 5th cycle after 1 hr radar DA OBS H(xb) 3DVar H(xb)_EnKF H(xb) Hybrid 50% B OBS H(xa) 3DVar H(xa)_EnKF H(xa) Hybrid 50% B Rong Kong

Summary EnKF can produce well-balanced model state variables while under-dispersion hampers quality of analysis. Clear benefit of static BEC in EnVar hybrid Special treatments for Z assimilation are necessary in the variational framework q vs log(q), non-zero lower limits to variables, etc. Liu et al. (2018, in review)

Research Projects EnKF-EnVar hybrid system – Rong Kong (Tue. 11:20 am) Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) Phased-array radar DA – Tim Supinie (Tue. 2:10 pm) Analysis and forecast sensitivity to the microphysics scheme with EnKF DA – Jon Labriola (Tue. 11: 40 am) Key points: Continuous rapid update (≤ 5 min), cycled storm-scale ensemble DA and forecasts High-resolution (≤ 1 km) ensemble forecasts Dual-polarization, phased array radar DA