Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Support System D4S2

Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation System (D4S2) Provide a circumstance-independent laboratory for testing how the type and scale of the event, situational variables and command decisions affect responders’ efficiency and effectiveness in dealing with complex and evolving disasters.

D4S2 Components GIS - ArcGIS 9.2, ESRI Simulation – Arena 10, Rockwell Automation Decision Model – Microsoft Visual Basic (.Net), SQL Server Control Structure – Microsoft Visual Basic (.Net)

D4S2 Architecture

D4S2 Process (Non-Linear) Define Event Type (CBRNE) 15 DHS Site Scope Geographic Temporal Extract GeoDatabase Information Victims Sites Assets Response Assets Simulate Event Response Fire, Police, EMS, HAZMAT, etc. Victims Reaction Casualty Classes Deterioration Event Progression Environment Air Plumes and Water Flow Model Decision Making Strategies Evacuation Quarantine Shelter in Place Dispatch Assets Timing Reserves

Pittsburgh

GIS Model

GIS Model Zoom

Simulation Model

Control Interface

D4S2 Decision Modeling Rule Based Rules Derived Inference Metadata Standards Best Practices Policy Procedures Plans SMEs (EMT, Police, Fire, HAZMAT, Mil., etc.) Inference Inductive Deductive

Validation Levels Module Model System

Validation Methodologies Scientific Theory Based Experience Exercise Subject Matter Experts

Scientific Basis of Science Hypotheses Subjects Instrumentation Experimental Group Control Group Instrumentation Experiment (Treatment) Measurement (Unbiased Observation) Analysis Statistics

Scientific Benefits Problems The “Acid Test” – True Validation Expensive, Destructive Hawthorne Effect

Theory Based The phenomena of Emergency Response are analogous to other natural systems (e.g. field theory, fluid flow, etc.) for which we have developed theoretical closed form solutions for well-defined circumstances Square Flat City

Theory Based Benefits Problems Simple Easy to Understand Inexpensive Hard to Project to Complex Environments

Experience Every location has had some type of emergency in the past for which we have records.

Experience Benefits Problems Lots of data (stories, images, etc.) Data not collected in a fusible fashion Data uneven – opportunistic Current event is not representative of future events

Exercise Create a scenario that is representative of the real situation to be studied and play out the scenario

Exercise Benefits Problems Wide range Customizable Instrumented Staged – no affect Expensive

Subject Matter Experts Use a Subject Matter Expert(s) (i.e. an experienced emergency manager) to evaluate the design decisions, the model and simulation results.

Subject Matter Experts Benefits Knowledge, Experience Projective Problems Expensive