Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Prof. Dr. Jurgen Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn University; Bangkok, Thailand Session 1.2 A first look at data: who, what, when, where, why? Present some data. Emphasize the data, not (yet) the data sources. For civil war, intrastate war, interstate war, and rebel, guerrilla, terror, or “political” war in general, identify the major actors (and supporters, e.g., Irish, Tamil, Pakistani diaspora in the United States, Canada, U.K.); identify by what means conflict is carried out or prepared for. What sorts of resources are used (sacrificed to alternative usage)? Geography and timing of conflict: global, international, regional, national, sub-national, local. The literature here is not very well-developed but fascinating hints exist. For example, in Renaissance Italy, there was a well-understood summer season of war because fodder for horses was difficult to obtain during winter. Similarly, modern-day guerrilla groups often fight from the relative security of jungles, mountains, and other difficult-to-reach places. Likewise, the selection of targets (e.g., tourist resorts) is of interest. There is a bit of a literature on the effect of nation-state borders on conflict that can be brought to bear here as well. Reading: .[no reading; will present lots of (incomplete) data and hope to engage students in a leisurely discussion, perhaps ending up creating a “map” of all the what, who, how, when, and where’s they can come up with.]

Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2 A first look at data What/why? [what is conflict about?] When? [time] Where? [location] How? [means of conflict] Who? [the actors] The data address these questions not entirely adequately and sometime in overlapping fashion Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: what/why? War onsets per decade by war type, 1820-1997 Here, for example, why, when, and how often are mixed in a single figure. Note: “extra-state” is a conflict between a state and one or more nonstate actors. Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 1.1 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: when? [by year] Stock of armed civil conflicts, 1946-2006 Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 7.2 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: when? [by year] Number of states in the international system, 1820-2004 Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 9.11 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: when? [duration] Armed civil conflict onsets, terminations, and duration, 1940s-2000s Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 7.3 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: where? [region] Stock of armed civil conflicts by region, 1975-2005 Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 7.4 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: where? [region] International terrorism by region, 1970-2004 Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 8.3 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: how? [money] Real military spending in selected nations (millions of $US at constant 2005 prices and exchange rates) Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 1.3 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: how? [weapons] USA and Russia/USSR nuclear weapons, 1945-2006 Source: Anderton/Carter – Fig. 10.3; draft manuscript (2008) Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: how? [attack type] International terrorism modes of attack, 1968-2004 Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 8.4 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: how? [effects] Casualties per incident from terrorism, 1970-2004 Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 8.2 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: who? [terrorists] International and domestic terrorist incidents worldwide, 1968-2007 Here, the “who” refers to two types of terrorist activity, domestic and transnational. Both are measured over time. Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 8.1 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: who? [alliances] Number of interstate alliances as reported by ATOP and COW Here, the “who” refers to alliance formation, measured over time. This figure mixes the “who” (states) and “how” (alliances) questions. ATOP: Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions project (http://atop.rice.edu/) COW: Correlates of War project (http://correlatesofwar.org/) Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 11.1 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

A first look at data: who? [alliances] Alliance commitments of the major powers in 2003 Source: Anderton/Carter (2009) – Fig. 11.4 Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

Assignment for Thursday, 4 June (1) 10 student groups: pick any one of these sites and make a five minute (maximum!) presentation on Thursday. This should include: What the data are about (weapons, actors, conflict type, military expenditure, etc.) What the data definitions are (be VERY specific; if possible, compare definitions of similar site/s) The time period for the data (e.g, 1820-2005, 1945-2007) Give a sample table/s or chart/s for other students to see Prepare powerpoint slides and 10 copies of a 1-2 page handout to share with me and the other groups (put your names and group number on the slides/handout) [I will also give a Report] Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2 Assignment for Thursday, 4 June (2) The report has two purposes. The first is to familiarize you with some of the major data sources used in peace and conflict studies. The second is for you to see the levels and trends of conflicts in the international system. The following are important principles to keep in mind when completing the report. Neat and professional presentation is essential. All of your graphs should be created with the computer (Excel a/o PowerPoint). Hand in a hard copy of the whole project. Please do not send an email attached file of the project. Handle the data very carefully. Make sure you are consistent with your units of measure. Be very careful to read the data from the correct table, column, and row. Be sure to label all calculations, tables, graphs, and axes on graphs. Make sure that all of your tables, graphs, and data answers indicate unit of measure (e.g., millions of constant 2000 $) and time period (e.g., 1995-2004). Include a title for each of your tables, graphs, and data answers. Each graph and table should be sufficiently labeled that it can stand alone. Think carefully about how to best present the information. Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2

Assignment for Thursday, 4 June (3) Possible data sites include … http://www.sipri.org/ | http://www.iiss.org/ http://www.state.gov/t/vci/rls/rpt/wmeat/ http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/ | http://correlatesofwar.org/ http://www.prio.no/page/CSCW/PRIO_menu_buttons/9195/9220 http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/ http://www.hiik.de/kosimo/index.html.en http://cns.miis.edu | http://www.nti.org http://wits.nctc.gov/Main.do | http://www.start.umd.edu/data/gtd/ http://www.visionofhumanity.com/index.php http://atop.rice.edu/ | http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/icb/ … or any other relevant site or sites Prof. J. Brauer; Summer 2009 Chulalongkorn U., Bangkok Economics of Conflict, War, and Peace Session 1.2