Analysis to Inform Management Adam Green David Pavlacky Bird Conservancy of the Rockies

Hierarchical distance sampling: density and population size Large-scale abundance of grids 5 km 1 km (m) Small-scale abundance of points Kéry and Royle, 2010. J. Anim. Ecol., Vol. 79.

Multi-scale occupancy Large-scale occupancy of grid cells (ψ) Small-scale occupancy of points (θ) Detection in minute intervals (p) Pavlacky et al., 2012, J. Wildl. Manag., Vol. 76. 1 km Psi = fraction of grid cells occupied on the landscape. This parameter is used for the distribution modelling. Theta = fraction of points occupied when the sample grid is occupied. His parameter us used for the habitat modelling. P = prob. of detection in minute intervals of the point count when the sample grid and point are occupied.

Hierarchical Bayesian species richness Species-specific Site-specific Metacommunity Zipkin et al., 2009, J. Appl. Ecol., Vol. 46. Iknayan et al., 2014. TREE, Vol. 29.

CFLRP treated? based on 2014 info. (2014 - 2016) Number of grids Year Treated? Total AR PS 2014 10 13 25 35 2015 4 2016 8 12 28 32 Number of points Year Treated? Total AR PS 2014 66 103 307 440 2015 21 32 118 121 2016 58 112 387 479

Mean estimates, counts (2014, 2016) Species Density Occupancy Count CFLRP Control Western tanager 13.0 13.4 0.82 0.77 263 264 Chipping sparrow 13.8 13.2 0.68 166 127 Squirrel, red 17.7 17.0 0.57 0.50 136 130 Pygmy nuthatch 10.4 10.5 0.62 0.45 122 113 Dusky flycatcher 7.0 7.1 0.53 94 95 Hairy woodpecker 6.7 5.3 0.69 108 70 Plumbeous vireo 2.3 2.6 0.28 0.37 46 55 Williamson's sapsucker 3.4 2.0 0.46 0.23 10 Mountain bluebird 1.1 1.6 0.17 0.21 19 28 Olive-sided flycatcher 0.8 0.5 0.14 35 11 Golden-crowned kinglet 0.9 0.04 0.06 4 5 Squirrel, Abert's 0.1 0.4 0.03 2

Objectives for analysis Want analyses that are relevant to management decisions WWT preliminary analysis objectives: Understanding of habitat preferences Assess population status Broader objective? Analyses should flow from the objectives to help us to better understand how management actions, in addition to other driving factors (e.g., weather), influence our objectives. This process of objective, actions and analysis provides a framework to think about other objectives such as fire risk.

Adaptive Management Assess problem Monitor Implement Design Evaluate Adjust ARM cycle from Williams et al. 2009 Design includes other components of the decision process that drive the rest.

Habitat relationships Adaptive Management Population status Plan Implement Objectives Alternative Actions Decide This includes objectives, which are the backbone of the entire process. Objectives reflect the values of the stakeholders and provide quantifiable metrics with which to: Evaluate management effectiveness Assess whether objectives have been met Provide information for state-dependent decisions Actions are the decisions to be made – what, when, where? Models are used to predict the response of objectives to each action. Use to evaluate costs and benefits of each action. Models Habitat relationships

An Example Plan Implement Objectives Increase distribution of open-canopy bird species - occupancy Prevent extinction of closed-canopy bird species - occupancy Alternative Actions Decide allaboutbirds.org allaboutbirds.org Distribution of birds = fundamental objective Occupancy = measurable attribute Models

An Example Plan Implement Thin canopy cover to X% Objectives Alternative Actions Decide fs.usda.gov Models

An Example Plan Implement Objectives Establish habitat relationships and assess management effectiveness Alternative Actions Decide Models

Say we have 5 open-canopy species Say we have 5 open-canopy species. Can’t manage perfectly for all but can find a level of canopy cover that works well for all.

But what if we have another species of interest that prefers closed canopies. Obviously, we can’t manage for all species at one location. So how do we coordinate management across the region to ensure all species are maintained?

Untreated   Open One extreme, all untreated. May be good for closed-canopy species but not for open

Untreated   Open Other extreme, vice versa

Untreated   Open Coordinate management and assess multiple treatments to provide habitat for closed- and open-canopy species.

Summary Clear, explicit objectives are required for adaptive management Establish decision analysis framework Easily accommodate non-biological objectives Trade-offs

Questions?

Management Ecology Quantitative There are 3 components to how forests are managed. Whether management actions achieve desired outcomes. Ecological responses and population/behavioral responses. Quantitative tools used to better understand these processes. In a management context, we are only concerned with the intersection of these 3 components. There may be interesting biological questions that will not help us make management decisions. By identifying explicit objectives, the analysis can focus on the information that is pertinent in making management decisions.

Analysis Details With clear objectives details of the analysis will be obvious Analysis should include: Measurable attributes as response variable Effectiveness of management actions Other driving factors