Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest Rivers to climate change

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Presentation transcript:

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest Rivers to climate change Fengge Su 1, Lan Cuo2, Huan Wu3, Nate Mantua1, Dennis P. Lettenmaier1 1University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 2University of Victoria, BC Canada V8W 2Y2 3 University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 Since you mention salmon in the next slide, you might include “salmon watersheds” in the title so people in the audience understand the orientation of this work 2018/12/2

Background North Pacific Rim A warming climate will alter: the snow pack seasonality of streamflow magnitude and frequency of peak flow and low flow events Water temperatures Changes in hydrologic regime and stream temperature have the potential to negatively impact the Pacific wild salmon. North Pacific Rim Pacific Ocean Pacific Northwest 12/2/2018

Experimental Design downscaled Climate data (T, P) for 2010-2098 Hydrologic model for streamflow simulations Floodplain habitat model Energy balance model for stream temperature simulations Statistically downscale coarse-resolution temperature and precipitation change scenarios from global climate models; use these as forcings in a finer scale hydrologic model to produce streamflow and temperature change scenarios. 12/2/2018

Hydrology Model and dataset Hydrology model: VIC Study domain: shaded area Resolution: 1/8 Number of grids: 146351 Input: Daily precipitation, Tmax, Tmin, and Wind speed. Derived input: Downward Solar and long wave, vapor pressure deficit Observed meteorology: daily P, Tmax, Tmin, Wind for 1950-1999 (global, 0.5 degree) (Maurer et al. 2009; Adam and Lettenmaier 2003) Output: Daily runoff, soil moisture, evaporation, and snow water equivalent Pacific Ocean Pacific Northwest 12/2/2018

Bias correction and spatial downscaling scheme for GCM output (Wood et al., 2002, 2004) Raw monthly P &T from 20 GCMs in IPCC AR4 under scenarios B1, A1B at 0.5-3.5 degree, 2010-2098 with respect to observed climatology for the period 1950-1999 at 2.0 degree Bias correction with respect to observed climatology for the period 1950-1999 at 0.5 degree Downscaling from 2.0 to 0.5 degree, monthly to daily Regridding from 0.5 to 0.125 degree Using nearest neighbor approach

Bias correction: Quantile-Quantile technique with respect to observed climatology (1950-1999) Bias corrected GCM value Raw GCM value Observed data cdf Raw GCM cdf Prcp CDF, monthly,2degree, grid data_47.00_121.00 Temp CDF, monthly,2degree,grid data_47.00_121.00

Monthly average precipitation (2070-2098) from one GCM -BCCR (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Norway) Raw GCM output, 2.0 degree bias corrected and downscaled map, 0.5 degree mm/mon

Average of 20 GCMs bias-corrected temperature changes under Scenario A1B 1960-1999 ºC 2040-2069 2070-2098 ºC

Average of 20 GCMs bias-corrected precipitation changes under Scenario A1B 1960-1999 mm/mon 2040-2069 2070-2098 mm/mon

Hydrologic response to projected climate change -case study in Colombia River Basin Resolution: 1/8 degree Historic run: 1960-1999 Future run: 2000-2098 Salmon river Willamette River 12/2/2018

Projected precipitation and temperature for the basins of Salmon and willamette 2010-2039 2010-2039 Precipitation (mm) Temperature (ºC) 2010-2039 2010-2039 2040-2069 2040-2069 2040-2069 2040-2069 2070-2098 2070-2098 Are the 1960-99 historical averages shown with the red lines, and individual model projections shown with black lines? For the temperature projections it is easier to see that the whole set of projections trends to warmer values for each month of the year … these are surface air temperature projections, and not water temperature projections, right? 2070-2098 2070-2098 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Historical (1960-1999) Single GCM GCM average 12/2/2018

Projected streamflow for the basins of Salmon, and willamette Single GCM Willamette GCM average 2010-2039 2010-2039 Historical (1960-1999) Streamflow (m3/s) The salmon is a snow-melt dominant basin, while Willamette is a rain dominant basin. The spring peak flow is projected to appear earlier in the Salmon basin in connection with an earlier snow melt. The Willamette basin is projected to have an increasing cool season flow as a result of increasing winter precipitation. 2040-2069 2040-2069 Doesn’t the Willamette Basin also have a substantial deep groundwater influence? How is that handled in the flow simulations? 2070-2098 2070-2098 12/2/2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Analysis underway … see our POSTER on stream temperature simulations: Climate Change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Pacific Northwest streams (1340h H33E-0929, Wednesday ) How will a changing climate affect summer low flows and flood peaks? How will a changing climate affect snow water equivalent (SWE) in Spring? How will a changing climate and hydrologic regime affect stream temperature? The other analysis that’s underway is the VIC hydrologic modeling simulations for North Pacific Rim watersheds …

Thank You!