The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) - a new scenario framework to provide key narratives for different climate futures Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls.

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Presentation transcript:

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) - a new scenario framework to provide key narratives for different climate futures Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls Australian-German Climate & Energy College University of Melbourne Seminar, 4 April 2018

Australian-German Climate & Energy College Pathway Pasta IPCC FAR 1990 IPCC AR4 2007 IPCC SAR 1995 IPCC AR5 2013 IPCC SRES 2000 IPCC AR6 2021 ??? IPCC TAR 2001 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College Content Climate scenario history SSP overview SSP baseline scenarios SSP-RCP matrix SSP mitigation pathways SSP pathways limiting warming to less than 1.5 °C SSP extensions 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Scenario History – SA90 & IS92 A wide range of scenario families have informed the IPCC assessment reports over last decades: IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR): four SA90 scenarios (Business-As-Usual, B, C, D) until 2100, same assumptions for economy and population, only varying future energy mix, one non-intervention scenario. IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR): six IS92 scenarios (IS92a to f) until 2100, varying population, income growth and fossil fuel resource assumptions, five non-intervention scenarios. 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Scenario History - SRES IPCC TAR (2001) and AR4 (2007): In 2000, the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) provided 40 new pathways and six illustrative scenarios (all non-intervention) until 2100, covering four main narratives. IPCC SRES 2000 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Scenario History - SRES A1: rapid economic growth, global population peaking mid-century, rapid introduction of efficient technology (fossil intensive A1FI, non-fossil A1T, balanced A1B) A2: heterogeneous world, self-reliance, increasing population, fragmented economic growth and technological change B1: convergent world, A1 population, more rapid changes towards information and service based economy, clean technologies B2: local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, lower continuous population growth than A2, less rapid, more diverse technological change than A1/B1 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College Scenario History From a Sequential Approach to a Parallel Process Sequential Approach (SA90, IS92, SRES): Socioeconomic Storylines Emission Scenarios Radiative Forcing Climate Scenarios Impact Assessments Parallel Process (RCPs, SSPs): Socioeconomic Storylines Emission Scenarios SSP framework Impact Assessments RCPs Climate Scenarios 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Scenario History - RCPs IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): Four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed based on published emission trajectory assumptions (non-intervention): 2100 radiative forcing levels of 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 Wm-2 identified to cover broad range of climate outcomes. RCP2.6 is consistent with keeping warming below 2°C relative to pre-industrial with a likely chance. RCP extensions (ECPs) have been introduced until 2300 to allow for analysis of longer term climate responses. 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Scenario History - RCPs IPCC WGI AR5 2013 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP overview The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) complement the RCPs by introducing five new socioeconomic storylines as part of the parallel scenario development process. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) quantify the five narratives with consistent population, urbanisation, education, and GDP assumptions resulting in energy system, land use and GHG emission pathways. The SSP framework separates non-mitigation baseline scenarios from pathways assuming different levels of climate mitigation. Climate mitigation efforts are realised within each SSP narrative with a set of Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs). 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP overview SSP1: sustainable development marker IAM: IMAGE SSP2: 'middle of the road‘ marker IAM: MESSAGE-GLOBIOM SSP3: regional rivalry marker IAM: AIM/CGE SSP4: inequality marker IAM: GCAM SSP5: high energy demand, fossil-fuel development marker IAM: REMIND-MAGPIE 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP overview O’Neill 2017 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP baselines - GDP pc 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP baselines - Inequality 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP baselines - Total Energy 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP baselines - Renewables 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP baselines - Fossil CO2 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP matrix illustrative CMIP6 ScenarioMIP pathways Adapted from O’Neill 2016 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP Mitigation pathways 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP CMIP6 pathways Rogelj et al. 2018 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP pathways 1.5 °C Primary Energy Coal w/o CCS CO2 Sequestration Rogelj et al. 2018 Rogelj et al. 2018 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP pathways 1.5 °C Afforestation and reforestation Change in cropland for agriculture Rogelj et al. 2018 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSPs – data needed post 2100 Key climate variables like sea-level rise (SLR) respond slowly to changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations and call for a projection horizon well beyond 2100. Nauels et al. 2017 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP extensions - Fossil CO2 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP extensions - Land use CO2 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP extensions - Fossil CH4 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

SSP extensions - Land use CH4 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP 2300 GMT responses 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College SSP 2300 SLR responses 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College Thank you! The new SSP framework merges ten years of socioeconomic and climate scenario research to more comprehensively inform the upcoming assessment report of the IPCC due in 2021… 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

Australian-German Climate & Energy College Upcoming Events Monday 9 April 6:30pm - Discussion with Simon Corbell (Victorian Renewable Energy Advocate) co-hosted with Beyond Zero Emissions - Prest Theatre, Faculty of Business and Economics, 111 Barry Street Wednesday 11 April 11:00am - Towards an improved methodology for Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for electricity supply - PhD Completion seminar - Graham Palmer - Climate College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street 2/12/2018 Australian-German Climate & Energy College

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