Predicting Human Performance Dr. George V. Kondraske

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Presentation transcript:

Predicting Human Performance Dr. George V. Kondraske Taylor Holland (214) 577-6786 holland@uta.edu

Background Nonlinear Casual Resource Analysis (NCRA) is a task analysis and performance prediction methodology, enabling realization of performance models as depicted in Figure 1 on the next slide (Kondraske, 1988; Carollo, 1998; Fischer, 2002; Gettman et al., 2003). NCRA can be used to predict which teams are more likely to make it to the Major League Baseball World Series. UTA Sensors and Applications REU 2012 Sunday, December 02, 2018

CORRELATION UTA Sensors and Applications REU 2010 Sunday, December 02, 2018

Goals Convince statisticians and the rest of the world that correlating stats is not the best way to measure a person’s performance. Have our research published. UTA Sensors and Applications REU 2010 Sunday, December 02, 2018

Predicting World Series Teams HLT – High Level Task Ex: Win percentage BPRs – Basic Performance Resources Ex: Hits, Homeruns, On Base Percentage, etc. UTA Sensors and Applications REU 2010 Sunday, December 02, 2018

Data The last 10 teams to win the World Series make up the top 11 team payrolls in the league. The last 20 teams to make it to the World Series led the league in all batting stats. The last 18 teams to make it to the World Series made up the top 5 win percentages for their respective league. UTA Sensors and Applications REU 2010 Sunday, December 02, 2018

Next Steps Continue to look for data to use for examples. Create scatter plots to present our data with. UTA Sensors and Applications REU 2010 Sunday, December 02, 2018