Models for Assessing and Forecasting the Impact of Environmental Key Pollutants on Freshwater and Marine Ecosystems and Biodiversity 26 partners from 14 countries Coordination: Werner Brack, UFZ Leipzig, Germany

Consortium

Motivation monitoring programmes Key Stressors sources of contamination l o g i c a l s o t c a t u e s i n s u ff i c i e n t monitoring programmes W F D river basin biological chemical hydromorphological quality b y management 2 Driving forces and pressures that prevent the achievement of good status. Key Stressors 1 5 o g i c a l s t a t c o l u s g o o d e

Basin scale approach Site scale approach Driving forces and pressures that prevent the achievement of good status. Key Stressors Basin scale approach Site scale approach

Approach Basin scale Site scale prioritisation, decision support effect modelling priority sites key toxicants effect analysis (in vitro, in vivo, in situ) effect directed analysis effect- Site scale central MODELKEY database integrated risk indexes prioritisation, decision support exposure analysis (sediment, water, biota) exposure exposure modelling

Elbe, Scheldt, llobregat Site scale approach Structure Two-dimensional Structure Sub-projects und work packages according to the scientific approaches 2) Case studies (river basins) Sub-projects and work packages: 6 scientific sub-projects 21 scientific work packages 4 accompanying Basin scale approach sub-projects case studies Elbe, Scheldt, llobregat

Site scale approach: Ecological risk assessment

WFD and Pollutants ANNEX VIII INDICATIVE LIST OF THE MAIN POLLUTANTS 1. Organohalogen compounds and substances which may form such compounds in the aquatic environment. 2. Organophosphorous compounds. 3. Organotin compounds. 4. Substances and preparations, or the breakdown products of such, which have been proved to possess carcinogenic or mutagenic properties or properties which may affect steroidogenic, thyroid, reproduction or other endocrine-related functions in or via the aquatic environment. 5. Persistent hydrocarbons and persistent and bioaccumulable organic toxic substances. 6. Cyanides. 7. Metals and their compounds. 8. Arsenic and its compounds. 9. Biocides and plant protection products. 10. Materials in suspension. 11. Substances which contribute to eutrophication (in particular, nitrates and phosphates). 12. Substances which have an unfavourable influence on the oxygen balance (and can be measured using parameters such as BOD, COD, etc.). Those priority list substances discharged into the river basin or sub-basins must be monitored. Other pollutants (ANNEX VIII) also need to be monitored if they are discharged in significant quantities in the river basin or sub-basin. (Monitoring. The key implementation requirements of the Water Framework Directive. Policy Summary to the Guidance Document)

KEYTOX complex effect environmental samples cause-effect relationships Site scale approach KEYTOX complex environmental samples effect cause-effect relationships effect- directed analysis cause toxicant

KEYTOX complex contamination toxicant Site scale approach KEYTOX complex contamination Recently identified toxicants in EDA studies in my lab: biological analysis dioxin-like chemical analysis toxic to algae mutagenic toxic to algae confirmation toxic to bacteria biological analysis dioxin-like fractionation toxic to invertebrates toxicant Brack et al., ET&C 24 (2005) 2445 Brack et al., (Arch. Environ. Contam. Toxicol. (1999) 164 Brack et al., ET&C 22 (2003) 2228 Brack & Schirmer ES&T 37 (2003) 3062

Site scale approach: Ecological risk assessment

effect- and bioaccumulation models Site scale approach SITE effect- and bioaccumulation models inverte- brates biofilms fish in situ community, bio-diversity taxonomic diversity, dominance structure, indicator species, trophic levels, food chains in situ effects, Microcosms PICT, metabolic profiling in situ bio- markers in vitro/in vivo toxicity sediment- contakt- tests in vitro testing toxicity to algae and bacteria exposure Concentrations in sediment and water, bioavailable and internal concentrations key toxicants effect-directed analysis

BASIN Basin scale approach Central MODELKEY database compiling all available monitoring data on habitat, hydraulics, contamination, toxicity, and ecology for Elbe Scheldt Llobregat

EXPO Generic exposure models integrating erosion, transport and Basin scale approach EXPO Generic exposure models integrating erosion, transport and sedimentation of particulate toxicants and partitioning of key toxicants between water, sediments, and biota

EFFECT Diagnostic effect models A C mapping B comparison Basin scale approach EFFECT Diagnostic effect models A C mapping comparison with reference B ecological-statistical cause analysis Ohio

Basin scale approach EFFECT Predictive models for effects of individual toxicants and mixtures on biodiversity organisms: fish macro invertebrates diatomes …. methods: artificial neural networks: multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and self-organizing map (SOM) environmental data: physico-chemical, habitat, toxicants

User-friendly decision support system (DSS) for risk and hot spot Basin scale approach DECIS User-friendly decision support system (DSS) for risk and hot spot prioritisation for a better river basin management.

} Basin scale Site scale approach approach MODELKEY and Monitoring  Comprehensive database of monitoring data from Elbe, Scheldt, and Llobregat (BASIN) for use in basin scale exposure (EXPO), effect (EFFECT) and risk modelling and prioritisation (DECIS).  suggestions for revised basin-specific key toxicants for revised monitoring lists  Effect-directed analysis (KEYTOX) and ecological risk assessment (SITE) at major hot spots of contamination for risk-based key toxicant identification suggestions for revised monitoring lists }

Thanks! to MODELKEY partners for their contributions to the EC for funding and to you for your attention