Understanding Radiative Forcing

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Presentation transcript:

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 1 Understanding Radiative Forcing IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Review of all data relevant to climate change Over 800 scientists from almost 40 countries Five reports: 1990 – 2014 Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 2014: over 3500 pages Photo courtesy IPCC

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 2 Understanding Radiative Forcing IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Figure & Text courtesy IPCC Summary for Policymakers

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 3 Understanding Radiative Forcing IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Radiative Forcing (RF): the affect a factor has on the Earth’s radiation budget Factors: atmospheric constituent, land-use change Positive RF: the factor warms the atmosphere Negative RF: the factor cools the atmosphere Relative to 1750 (pre-industrial revolution) RF = Incoming Radiation – Outgoing Radiation

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 4 Understanding Radiative Forcing IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Radiative Forcing (RF): the affect a factor has on the Earth’s radiation budget (relative to 1750) CO2 has increased from 280 ppm (1850) to 400 ppm RF = 1.68 W m–2 Today, every m2 of the Earth’s surface atmosphere is warmer by the equivalent of 1.68 W due to CO2 RF = Incoming Radiation – Outgoing Radiation

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 5 Understanding Radiative Forcing IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Radiative Forcing (RF): the affect a factor has on the Earth’s radiation budget (relative to 1750) CO2 = 1.68 W m–2 Other factors: CH4, N2O, CFCs, land use change… Overall RF ~ 2.29 W m–2 Uncertain: 1.13-3.33 W m–2 Text courtesy IPCC Summary for Policymakers

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 6 Understanding Radiative Forcing Figure courtesy IPCC Summary for Policymakers

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 7 Understanding Radiative Forcing Very High High Medium cool warm How these affect GHGs Human Emissions RFs (with uncertainties) Figure courtesy IPCC Summary for Policymakers

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 8 Understanding Radiative Forcing Very High High Medium Low Aerosols & Clouds Land Use Changes in Sun Figure courtesy IPCC Summary for Policymakers

Understanding Radiative Forcing Climate Change 9 Understanding Radiative Forcing Sums 2011 1980 1950