Got gas? the cyprus story Why did I choose this topic?
Background Domination Diversity Demarcation Egypt, Phonecian, Assyrian, Persian, Hellenist, Roman, Byzantine, English (King Richard), French, Venetian, Ottoman, and British Rule. Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (recognized only by Turkey) 300,000 mostly Turkish folks. 840,000 in Republic of Cyprus Greek military coup de tat in 1974 went really poorly. The idea was to rejoin Cyprus with Greece, but resulted in Turks invading and capturing 40% of the island and democracy being restored within a month. The UN set up the UN Buffer Zone in Cyprus, which remains to this day, and is called “the green line.” But a lightning bolt looks neater. EU NATO rift. Professor Yost “The Cyprus Problem” TURKEY IN NATO, CYPRUS IN EU… Latest owner of Cyprus? EU... Through bailouts, but Aphrodite save us, there is light at the end of the tunnel!
Aphrodite Field http://www.turkishnews.com/en/content/2012/05/07/turkeys-cyprus-oil-quest-to-cost-250-million/ This one looks pretty clearly in Cyprus’ territory vice Turkey, but the areas 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11 and possibly even 1 are contentious for Turkish EEZ concerns. Maybe if they called it something less polytheistic…
Numbers Net Revenue: $69, $55, or $50 Billion Cyprus national debt = $20 B (105% of GDP) 98% Aphrodite: 5 Tcf recoverable Aphrodite-2: 3 Tcf expected to split with Israel French, Italian, South Korean interest… Possible other shirk names?
Sea borders: not so EEZ
Current E. Med http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=EM
Proposed E. Med http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=EM Proposal to build pipeline from Larnaca to Greece, $14 B less, and though they just got upgraded from junk to something like C- creditworthyness, the security of a LNG plant for an extra $5 B might be worth it…
Most economical pipeline http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=EM Worries about Turkey as stable partner for pipeline, but largely refuted in academic works. Israel unwilling to depend on Cyprus to process its gas. AS OF 1 Week ago… LNG plant (2 = 30% savings overall, but need more than 7 TcF to make it worthwhile. BUILDING a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Vassilikos is the best option for Cyprus, according to a preliminary report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Cyprus Institute (CyI). After analyzing the “risks” researchers from MiT, Cyl, U Cyprus, Greek universityes, German Marshall Fund, and the PRIO institute decided it was the best risk assessed option.
Cyprus as energy hub? That’s the plan. Sorry Ceyhan. Or perhaps this is the bigger issue here…control over who will what should be a lucrative business in fossil fuel duties… http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch3en/conc3en/Med_deviation_shipping.html
Question?