with contributions (alphabetical) from Advances in Studies of Air Quality and Health Informed with Satellite Remote Sensing Randall Martin with contributions (alphabetical) from Brian Boys, Jeff Geddes, Mark Gibson, Colin Lee, Caroline Nowlan (now SAO), Sajeev Philip, Graydon Snider, Crystal Weagle, Aaron van Donkelaar, Junwei Xu Michael Brauer (UBC), Myungie Choi (Yonsei), Aaron Cohen (HEI), Daven Henze (CU Boulder), Christina Hsu (NASA), Jhoon Kim (Yonsei), Yang Liu (Emory), Zifeng Lu (Argonne), Vanderlei Martins (AirPhoton), David Streets (Argonne), Siwen Wang (Tsinghua), Qiang Zhang (Tsinghua), SPARTAN Team AGU 19 December 2014

Insufficient In Situ Measurements for Exposure Assessment General Approach to Estimate Daily PM2.5 Concentration Daily Satellite(MODIS, MISR, SeaWifs, GOCI) GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2) Column of AOD or NO2 Coincident Model (GEOS-Chem) Profile Altitude Concentration Accounts for relation of “dry” PM2.5 with ambient extinction relation of aerosol during satellite-observation vs continuous

Climatology (2001-2006) of MODIS- and MISR-Derived PM2.5 Global Burden of Disease 2010 PM2.5 Causal Role in 70 Million Disability Adjusted Life Years (~3%) >3 Million Excess Deaths (~5%) Three-fold increase in premature mortality rate over previous Global Burden of Disease study for 2000 Lim et al., Lancet, 2012 Similar Conclusions Reached by WHO in 2014 Evaluation in North America: r=0.77 slope = 1.07 N=1057 Outside Canada/US N = 244 (84 non-EU) r = 0.83 (0.83) Slope = 0.86 (0.91) Bias = 1.15 (-2.64) μg/m3 EHP Paper of the Year van Donkelaar et al., EHP, 2010

Combine SeaWifs & MISR to Calculate 15-Year PM2 Combine SeaWifs & MISR to Calculate 15-Year PM2.5 Timeseries (1998-2012) East Asia Eastern North America PM2.5 (μg m-3) PM2.5 (μg m-3) Middle East South Asia 0.25 -0.25 1 -1 1.5 -1.5 2 -2 0.01 0.05 0.1 P- value PM2.5 Trend [µg m-3 yr-1] -0.5 0.5 PM2.5 (μg m-3) Boys et al., ES&T, 2014

Consistent Trends in Satellite-Derived and In Situ PM2.5 1999-2012 Eastern US PM2.5 Anomaly (ug m-3) In Situ SeaWifs & MISR In Situ In Situ (1999-2012) 0.37 ± 0.06 μg m-3 yr-1 Satellite-Derived (1999-2012) 0.36 ± 0.13 μg m-3 yr-1 Satellite-Derived Boys et al., ES&T, 2014

Interpret Satellite-derived PM2.5 Trends with GEOS-Chem Eastern North America Middle East SeaWifs & MISR -0.39±0.10 μg m-3 yr-1 SeaWifs & MISR 0.81±0.21 μg m-3 yr-1 PM2.5 [ug/m3] GEOS-Chem Mineral Dust 0.7 μg m-3 yr-1 GEOS-Chem Secondary Inorganic -0.4 μg m-3 yr-1 South Asia East Asia Year Year SeaWifs & MISR 0.93±0.22 μg m-3 yr-1 SeaWifs & MISR 0.79±0.27 μg m-3 yr-1 PM2.5 [ug/m3] GEOS-Chem Secondary Inorganic 0.7 μg m-3 yr-1 GEOS-Chem Secondary Inorganic 0.8 μg m-3 yr-1 GEOS-Chem Organic 0.2 μg m-3 yr-1 GEOS-Chem Organic 0.04 μg m-3 yr-1 Boys et al., ES&T, 2014

WHO Guideline & Interim Targets Changes in Long-term Population-Weighted Ambient PM2.5 Clean Areas are Improving; High PM2.5 Areas are Degrading WHO Guideline & Interim Targets 1998 (51%) 1998 Exceedance of WHO AQG drops from 62% to 19% 2012 (70%) Exceedance of WHO IT1 increases from 51% to 70% 2012 WHO AQG WHO IT1 Exceedance of WHO AQG drops from 62% to 19% van Donkelaar et al., EHP, 2014

Population Weighted PM2 Population Weighted PM2.5 Composition Use GEOS-Chem to Partition Satellite AOD into PM2.5 Composition Particulate Organic Matter (OM) Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA) 11 ug/m3 12 ug/m3 11 ug/m3 r=0.94, slope=0.89 r=0.70, slope=0.44 Mineral Dust Satellite-Model outperforms pure model. Examples: Slope GEOS-Chem SIA = 0.65 (vs 0.93 with sat) GEOS-Chem OM: r = 0.61 (vs r=0.70 with sat) Philip et al., ES&T, 2014

GOCI Offers High Temporal and Spatial Resolution for Inference of PM2 In Situ PM2.5 better represented by GOCI-derived PM2.5 (slope = 0.91) than by GEOS-Chem (slope =0.53) Also better than MODIS (r=0.8, slope=1.3) Junwei Xu et al., in prep AOD from Jhoon Kim

SPARTAN: An Emerging Global Network to Evaluate and Enhance Satellite-Based Estimates of PM2.5 Measures PM2.5 Mass & Composition at Sites Measuring AOD Testing Deployed Committed Prospective Semi-Autonomous PM2.5 & PM10 Impaction Sampling Station (AirPhoton) Ions & metals 3-λ Nephelometer AOD from CIMEL Sunphotometer (e.g. AERONET) www.spartan-network.org Snider et al., AMTD, 2014

PM2.5/AOD Driven by Scattering Vertical Profile & Mass Scattering Efficiency bsp = nephelometer measurements of aerosol scatter overpass = satellite overpass times (taken as 10am – 2pm) www.spartan-network.org Snider et al., AMTD, 2014 PM2.5 / AOD (μg / m3)

Nonlinear Relation Between PM2 Nonlinear Relation Between PM2.5 and Sources Which Local Sources Should be Reduced to Decrease Premature Mortality from PM2.5? PM2.5 Primary Chemistry Precursors Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Ammonia (NH3) Adjoint Model: Calculate Sensitivity of Global Premature Mortality to Local Emissions 3. Global Premature Mortality ∂ ∂Emissions Chemistry & Transport ∂ ∂Concentrations Colin Lee

Sensitivity of Global Premature Mortality to: SO2 Emissions NH3 Emissions 7. ΔMortalityglobal / 10% ΔEmissions Lee et al., in prep

For Surface NO2 Also Consistent Trends (1996-2012) in In Situ and Satellite-Derived (GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2) Relative NO2 (unitless) Year Geddes et al., submitted

Surface NO2 Trends over 1996-2012 from GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 Similarities with PM2.5 Trends where Driven by Secondary Inorganics Differences Elsewhere NO2(ppbv) NO2(ppbv) NO2(ppbv) Geddes et al., submitted

Dry Deposition of NO2 and SO2 Inferred from OMI (2005-2008) and GEOS-Chem Deposition Velocity Nowlan et al., GBC, 2014

Insight into Global PM2.5 & NO2 through Satellite Remote Sensing Modeling, and Ground-based Instruments Particulate matter is major risk factor for global premature mortality Regions with high PM2.5 have increasing concentrations Regions with low PM2.5 have decreasing concentrations Asian PM2.5 increasing by 1-2 ug/m3/yr SPARTAN evaluates AOD/PM2.5 simulation Controls in South Asia on SO2 much more effective than on NH3 Dramatic trends in NO2 worldwide indicate changing air quality mix NO2 and SO2 offer constraints on dry deposition Acknowledgements: NSERC, Health Canada, Environment Canada